PEM Fuel Cell Trucking Pivots, 1 Ballard-Ford Deal, 1 Daimler-Volvo Venture, and 10+ Project Delays (2021-2026)

The fuel cell transportation market is undergoing a significant strategic correction, shifting from the broad application hype of 2021-2024 to a disciplined focus on narrow, high-value niches from 2025 onwards. Early-stage pilots across aviation, mining, and public transit have given way to a more pragmatic concentration on segments where fuel cells hold a distinct operational advantage over battery-electric technology, primarily long-haul trucking. This pivot reflects a market grappling with the realities of infrastructure costs, hydrogen fuel pricing, and intense competition, forcing companies to prioritize commercially viable pathways over expansive but economically unproven visions.

Fuel Cell Project Adoption Shifts to Heavy-Duty Niches

The fuel cell transportation sector has recalibrated its strategy, moving away from a wide-ranging approach seen between 2021-2024 to a concentrated push into specific, hard-to-decarbonize segments like long-haul trucking and port logistics from 2025 forward. This strategic narrowing is a direct response to economic and infrastructural headwinds, forcing a pragmatic focus on applications where fuel cell value propositions of long range and fast refueling are most pronounced.

Broad Pilot Diversity (2021-2024)

The period between 2021 and 2024 was characterized by a diverse portfolio of pilot projects designed to test the viability of fuel cells across multiple transport modes. These initiatives demonstrated technical feasibility but also highlighted the challenges of scaling in disparate markets. Key projects included the JIVE and JIVE 2 initiatives, which aimed to deploy nearly 300 fuel cell buses across 22 European cities. In aviation, Universal Hydrogen marked a significant milestone in 2023 with the first flight of its hydrogen-powered Dash 8 aircraft. Simultaneously, collaborations like the one between Ballard Power Systems and Adani targeted the demanding mining sector with a hydrogen-powered mining truck, showcasing the technology’s versatility.

Market Correction and Niche Focus (2025+)

Beginning in 2025, the market showed clear signs of a correction, with reports of project cancellations and timeline delays prompting a strategic refocus. The industry has since consolidated its efforts around heavy-duty trucking, a segment where the limitations of battery-electric vehicles in terms of range, payload, and charging time create a strong opening for fuel cell solutions. Cummins‘ successful 1, 806-mile demonstration journey with a hydrogen-fueled truck in late 2024 served as a critical proof-of-concept. This pivot is further supported by the work of ventures like Cellcentric, a partnership between Daimler Truck and Volvo Group, which is exclusively focused on developing fuel cell systems for long-haul trucks. This shift indicates a mature understanding that near-term success depends on dominating specific, defensible market niches.

Partnership Analysis for Fuel Cell Transport Projects

Strategic partnerships between fuel cell technology specialists and established vehicle OEMs were a foundational market-entry strategy between 2021 and 2024. These alliances were structured to de-risk technology development, leverage existing manufacturing and sales networks, and accelerate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, particularly in the challenging heavy-duty segment.

OEM and Tech Provider Collaborations

The most prominent trend involved fuel cell developers partnering with large, established original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). In 2023, Ballard Power Systems announced a significant partnership with Ford Trucks to develop a fuel cell-powered heavy-duty truck with a target range of 750 km. That same year, Ballard also initiated a project with the Adani Group to create a hydrogen-fueled mining truck. A landmark collaboration is Cellcentric, the joint venture between global truck manufacturers Daimler Truck and Volvo Group, created to jointly develop, produce, and commercialize fuel cell systems for heavy-duty applications. These partnerships grant fuel cell companies access to vehicle integration expertise and market channels, while OEMs gain a pathway to zero-emission technology.

Joint Manufacturing Ventures

Beyond vehicle development, key players formed joint ventures to scale up the manufacturing of fuel cell systems, a critical step toward reducing costs. A primary example is the joint venture between General Motors and Honda, Fuel Cell System Manufacturing LLC, which began producing systems at its Michigan facility in early 2024. This venture is designed to supply fuel cells for both parent companies’ vehicle programs and for sale to third parties in applications ranging from heavy-duty trucks to stationary power. This strategy mirrors efforts seen in other sectors, where companies like Ceres Power pursue joint ventures to scale manufacturing for different end markets, including the use of solid oxide fuel cells for data centers.

Table: Key Fuel Cell Transportation Partnerships (2021-2024)

Geographic Focus for Fuel Cell Transport Projects

While fuel cell technology development is global, deployment strategies have shown clear regional divergence. Europe has prioritized publicly funded public transit projects to build initial scale and public acceptance, whereas North America has focused on commercial-led development centered on heavy-duty trucking and a domestic manufacturing base, a pattern seen across various clean technologies.

Europe’s Public Transit Leadership

Europe led early adoption through large-scale, coordinated public transportation initiatives. The JIVE and JIVE 2 projects are the primary examples, aiming to deploy nearly 300 fuel cell buses across more than 20 European cities by leveraging joint procurement and shared technical specifications to drive down costs. By early 2025, these buses had logged over 24.6 million kilometers. Further activity is seen in countries like Poland, which introduced its domestically produced Neso Bus fuel cell bus in 2024. This strategy uses public funds to create anchor demand, build operational experience, and establish initial refueling infrastructure in urban centers.

North America’s Heavy-Duty Focus

In contrast, North American activity is heavily weighted toward the private sector and commercial applications. The United States is the hub for developing and demonstrating fuel cell solutions for long-haul trucking, with Cummins conducting its long-range truck demonstration and the GM/Honda joint venture establishing a mass-manufacturing facility in Michigan. The aviation sector has also seen key milestones in the US, with Universal Hydrogen‘s test flight occurring in Washington state. This approach is heavily influenced by the continent’s logistics-intensive economy and is increasingly supported by federal incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act, which targets domestic manufacturing and clean fuel production. The focus on commercial use-cases like trucking and maritime port logistics reflects a strategy to compete where the technology has the clearest economic advantage.

HFCV Market Set for Hypergrowth: $170.74B by 2034 with 52.4% CAGR
The global Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (HFCV) market is projected to reach $170.74 billion by 2034, exhibiting an explosive 52.4% CAGR between 2026 and 2034. North America and Europe are the largest current market contributors, but Asia Pacific shows aggressive growth, poised to become a dominant force by 2034.

Massive Opportunity in Hydrogen Mobility Driven by Regional Policy & Investment
This unprecedented CAGR signifies a critical investment window in hydrogen mobility. Early leadership in North America and Europe indicates strong policy frameworks and established infrastructure. However, Asia Pacific’s rapid acceleration highlights its potential as a future growth engine, driven by national hydrogen strategies and industrial adoption.

(Source: Polaris Market Research — via Fuel Cell Market Report 2025 – 2030, By Type & Application)

Technology Maturity in Fuel Cell Transport Projects

Between 2021 and 2026, fuel cell technology for transportation advanced from early-stage pilots to successful real-world demonstrations in demanding heavy-duty applications. This progress has affirmed the technology’s technical readiness for specific use cases but has also brought the significant economic and infrastructural challenges of mass deployment into sharper focus. While some firms like Fuel Cell Energy focus on stationary power, mobility players are validating their technology in motion.

Proving Feasibility in Demanding Applications (2021-2024)

The period was defined by high-profile projects that proved fuel cells could operate effectively in challenging environments, moving beyond passenger cars. Universal Hydrogen‘s successful flight of a Dash 8-300 in 2023, powered by the largest fuel cell ever used in an aircraft, was a landmark achievement for aviation. In ground transport, Ballard‘s collaboration with Adani to develop a 55-ton mining truck demonstrated applicability in heavy industry. In port logistics, Hyster began integrating fuel cells into its container handlers, and Rolls-Royce‘s mtu brand deployed systems for port power. These projects were crucial for validating the technology’s performance credentials.

Confronting Economic and Infrastructural Hurdles (2025+)

The sobering reality of 2025 and beyond is that technical feasibility does not guarantee commercial success. The market correction and strategic pivot toward long-haul trucking are direct consequences of the high total cost of ownership, driven by the price of green hydrogen and the massive capital investment required for a widespread refueling network. The sector’s current focus on “hard-to-abate” niches is an admission that, for many applications, battery-electric vehicles present a more economically viable near-term solution. The future growth of FCEVs now hinges less on technology demonstration and more on solving the economics of hydrogen production and distribution.

SWOT Analysis for Fuel Cell Transport Projects

The fuel cell transportation market possesses validated technological strengths for specific high-performance applications and is supported by global decarbonization mandates. However, its growth is fundamentally constrained by high costs and a critical lack of fueling infrastructure, creating threats from more mature competing technologies and forcing a strategic narrowing of market focus.

Table: SWOT Analysis for Fuel Cell Installations in Transportation

Scenario Modeling for Fuel Cell Transport Projects

The sector’s trajectory over the next 18-24 months hinges on the successful commercial execution of flagship heavy-duty truck projects and the tangible impact of green hydrogen production incentives on fuel costs. The current strategic focus on trucking is a critical test; failure to establish a beachhead here would force a fundamental re-evaluation of the role of fuel cells in mobility.

• If flagship heavy-duty truck projects from firms like Cummins, Cellcentric (Daimler/Volvo), and the Ballard/Ford partnership meet their operational and total cost of ownership targets in scaled deployments, it will strongly validate the niche strategy. This would likely trigger a new wave of investment focused specifically on the hydrogen trucking ecosystem, from component suppliers to refueling infrastructure.
• Watch for the announcement of large-scale, binding offtake agreements for FCEV trucks that are directly linked to the development of dedicated hydrogen refueling corridors. The presence of these integrated vehicle-and-fuel deals is a key signal of market maturity. Their continued absence suggests the persistent disconnect between vehicle supply and fuel availability remains unresolved.
• The on-the-ground implementation of government incentives, particularly the final rules and market impact of the U.S. IRA’s Section 45 V hydrogen production tax credit, is a critical variable. Clear and favorable guidance that lowers the cost of green hydrogen at the pump could significantly accelerate adoption. Conversely, continued ambiguity or unfavorable rules will perpetuate project delays and investor uncertainty.

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of the fuel cell transport market’s commercial strategy. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• hydrogen refueling corridors for trucking US
• green hydrogen cost per kilogram with tax credits
• firm orders for hydrogen fuel cell trucks
• total cost of ownership fuel cell vs battery electric truck

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