Total Energies CCUS Projects, $714 M Northern Lights Expansion with Equinor, and 5 Mtpa Capacity Goal (2025)

Total Energies Commercial Scale Projects and Hub-and-Spoke Adoption Strategy

In 2025, Total Energies shifted its carbon capture strategy from proving concepts at isolated sites to building large-scale, interconnected carbon management hubs designed to serve entire industrial regions. This marks a transition from internal decarbonization projects to creating a foundational, service-based business model for the broader European market. The company’s focus is on developing the infrastructure backbone that enables third-party industrial emitters to access permanent CO 2 storage solutions.

• Prior to 2025, the company’s CCS efforts were characterized by pilot projects and participation in early-stage development, such as the initial phases of the Northern Lights venture. The primary objective was technology validation and operational learning within a more constrained, project-specific scope.
• In 2025, the strategy scaled significantly with the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Northern Lights Phase 2 expansion and continued development of the Northern Endurance Partnership in the UK. This represents a pivot to building out massive, multi-user infrastructure capable of handling emissions from numerous industrial sources, effectively creating a hub-and-spoke model.
• This infrastructure-led approach is validated by the company’s ambitious target to develop carbon capture and storage solutions equivalent to 100 Mt/year of CO 2 generated by its customers. This explicitly frames CCS as a commercial service offering, moving beyond the sole purpose of abating its own operational emissions.

$714 M Northern Lights FID, Total Energies $5 B Low-Carbon Budget, and $100/ton Price

Total Energies is backing its infrastructure-led CCS strategy with substantial, de-risked capital commitments, using a combination of direct investment, joint venture partnerships, and public funding to build its market position. The company’s financial approach is pragmatic, utilizing a high internal carbon price to ensure projects are structured for long-term profitability in a regulated market. This disciplined investment model allows the company to manage the high upfront costs and extended payback periods typical of large-scale infrastructure.

• The headline commitment in 2025 was the $714 million (NOK 7.5 billion) joint investment with partners Equinor and Shell to fund the Phase 2 expansion of the Northern Lights project. This investment more than triples the project’s CO 2 storage capacity, signaling strong confidence in future commercial demand.
• This CCS-specific spending is situated within a broader $5 billion investment framework for low-carbon energies in 2025. This demonstrates that while CCS is a strategic priority, it is managed as part of a diversified portfolio that also includes renewables and other energy transition technologies.
• The company’s decision to leverage public funding, such as the grant secured from the EU Innovation Fund for its ARCa De project in Antwerp in July 2025, is a key part of its de-risking strategy. This approach reduces direct capital exposure and provides a strong signal of regulatory and political support for its projects.
• Underpinning these investments is the use of a $100 per ton internal carbon price in financial modeling. This ensures that projects are evaluated against a realistic, forward-looking carbon market, building a portfolio that is resilient and economically viable as emissions regulations tighten.

TotalEnergies Details ~$15B Capex Plan, $4B for Low-Carbon

This chart provides financial context for the investments mentioned in the section, detailing TotalEnergies’ capital expenditure plan and the allocation towards low-carbon initiatives, which aligns with the discussion of the Northern Lights FID and the company’s overall low-carbon budget.

(Source: Total Energies)

Table: Total Energies Carbon Capture Investments (2025)

Total Energies CCS Partnerships with Equinor, Shell, and Air Liquide (2025)

The core of Total Energies’ execution strategy for carbon capture relies on forming joint ventures with other energy majors, industrial gas experts, and infrastructure developers. This partnership model allows the company to distribute the immense capital costs and operational risks associated with building Europe’s foundational CCS transport and storage networks. By collaborating with competitors and specialists, Total Energies accelerates project development and builds a more resilient, integrated value chain.

• The primary partnership model is the large-scale infrastructure JV, exemplified by the Northern Lights project with Equinor and Shell. This structure allows the partners to pool capital for a massive, shared storage asset while individually competing to secure CO 2 volumes from their respective industrial customers.
• In a different strategic approach, the 50/50 joint venture with Air Liquide, formed in February 2025, targets the decarbonization of Total Energies’ own Normandy refinery. This partnership combines Total Energies’ industrial asset with Air Liquide’s expertise in gas handling and capture technology, creating a self-contained business case.
• The company has replicated its infrastructure partnership model in other key markets, most notably through its participation in the Northern Endurance Partnership in the UK with BP and Equinor. This project aims to create a similar hub for the Teesside and Humber industrial clusters, demonstrating the scalability of the JV approach.
• Beyond Europe, Total Energies expanded its CCS-integrated portfolio by taking a 10% stake in the Rio Grande LNG Train 4 project with Next Decade in the U.S. This move links its growing LNG business directly with large-scale carbon capture, addressing emissions at the source within a key growth area.

Oil, Gas, & Power Dominate Carbon Capture Market

This chart illustrates that the oil, gas, and power industries are the primary markets for carbon capture. This provides crucial context for TotalEnergies’ partnerships with major players like Equinor, Shell, and Air Liquide, as they all operate within these dominant sectors.

(Source: Global Market Insights)

Table: Total Energies Strategic CCS Partnerships (2025)

Northern Europe Hubs, Total Energies Focus on Norway, UK, and Belgium

In 2025, Total Energies concentrated its carbon capture infrastructure investments in Northern Europe, creating a strategic triangle around the North Sea. This geographic focus is driven by the unique combination of favorable offshore geology for permanent CO 2 storage and close proximity to some of Europe’s densest industrial corridors. This contrasts with a more globally dispersed and exploratory approach in prior years, marking a decisive commitment to building out this specific region as the core of its commercial CCS business.

• Norway serves as the anchor of the strategy, hosting the flagship Northern Lights project. Its stable regulatory environment and vast, well-characterized offshore saline aquifers make it the ideal location for a large-scale, reliable CO 2 storage hub.
• The United Kingdom represents a critical market for CO 2 supply. Through the Northern Endurance Partnership, Total Energies is developing the infrastructure to capture emissions from the Teesside and Humber industrial clusters, which are among the UK’s largest sources of CO 2.
• Belgium and the Netherlands form the third corner of the strategy. The ARCa De project at the Antwerp refinery and the CO 2 next JV at the Port of Rotterdam position Total Energies to serve the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) region, a major industrial heartland in need of decarbonization solutions.

TotalEnergies Visualizes North Sea CCS Hub

The chart visually represents the North Sea CCS hub, which is the geographical focus of the section discussing TotalEnergies’ activities in Norway, the UK, and Belgium.

(Source: Total Energies)

Total Energies Deploys TRL 9 Tech and Pilots Ship-Based Carbon Capture

Total Energies’ technology strategy in 2025 is dual-focused: it prioritizes the deployment of commercially proven, low-risk technologies for its foundational infrastructure projects while simultaneously funding targeted pilots of next-generation applications. This approach allows the company to build out its core business with reliable, predictable technology (Technology Readiness Level 9) while exploring innovations that can decarbonize other parts of its value chain, such as maritime shipping.

• The company’s large-scale projects, including Northern Lights and the planned refinery capture units, are built using mature, TRL 9 technologies like amine-based post-combustion capture. This strategic choice minimizes deployment risk and ensures performance predictability for these capital-intensive, long-term assets.
• In parallel, Total Energies is advancing the maturity of innovative applications through targeted pilots. The successful demonstration of the Ever Lo NG project in April 2025, which achieved capture rates of up to 80% on a company-chartered LNG carrier, is a key example of this effort to address emissions in the hard-to-abate maritime sector.
• This dual approach indicates that the company is acting as a technology integrator and deployer rather than a primary inventor of new capture chemistries. The focus is on finding the most cost-effective and reliable way to integrate existing solutions at scale to build a commercially viable business.

TotalEnergies Forecasts Shift in Energy Production Mix

The chart shows TotalEnergies’ strategic shift in its energy production mix towards lower-carbon sources. The deployment of advanced CCS technology, as discussed in the section, is a critical enabler of this transition.

(Source: Total Energies)

SWOT Analysis, Total Energies First-Mover Advantage and Regulatory Risk

Total Energies’ aggressive infrastructure-first strategy establishes a powerful first-mover advantage by creating the essential transport and storage assets that will define the European CCS market. This position provides a significant competitive moat. However, it also exposes the company to substantial market development and regulatory risks, as the profitability of these assets depends heavily on external factors like carbon pricing and customer adoption rates.

Regulations and Industry Demand Drive CCS Market

The chart illustrates the key market drivers for CCS, including regulations and industry demand. This directly supports the SWOT analysis by providing context for the opportunities (driven by demand) and threats (related to regulatory risk).

(Source: Coherent Market Insights)

Table: SWOT Analysis for Total Energies’ CCS Strategy

Total Energies 2026 Outlook: Securing Offtake Agreements for 5 Mtpa Capacity

The primary strategic imperative for Total Energies’ CCS business in the year ahead is to convert its massive infrastructure investments into contracted, long-term revenue. Having committed the capital to expand storage capacity, the company’s success will now be measured by its ability to sign a pipeline of commercial offtake agreements with industrial emitters across Europe, filling the 5+ Mtpa capacity of the Northern Lights project.

• If this happens: Watch for a series of announcements of binding storage agreements from industrial players in sectors like cement, chemicals, and waste-to-energy, particularly from Germany and the Benelux region. Each new contract will further de-risk the project and validate the commercial model.
• Watch this: The price of carbon on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will be the most critical external driver. A sustained price above the €80-€100 per ton range provides a powerful economic incentive for emitters to capture their CO 2 and pay for storage, accelerating contract negotiations.
• These could be happening: Progress on the development of CO 2 transport infrastructure, such as new terminals and shipping routes connecting mainland Europe to the Northern Lights facility, will be a key enabler. Simultaneously, monitor for competing storage projects in the North Sea reaching their own Final Investment Decisions, which could signal the beginning of a more competitive market for CO 2 storage services.

TotalEnergies Charts Path to 40% Emissions Cut by 2030

This chart outlines TotalEnergies’ broader ambition to cut emissions by 40% by 2030, providing the strategic framework and long-term goal that the 2026 outlook and 5 Mtpa capacity target contribute to.

(Source: CarbonCredits.com)

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of TotalEnergies’ commercial strategy for carbon capture services. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• TotalEnergies’ activities in the North Sea. Is the Northern Lights partnership progressing from a pilot project to a commercial-scale hub?
• TotalEnergies’ investments and funding. Is the company’s CCUS scale-up on track to meet its 5 Mtpa capacity goal by 2025?
• Which European industrial emitters are adopting the hub-and-spoke CCUS model?

This report does not answer these. Enki Brief Pro does.

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