Total Energies LNG Strategy, $928 M US Wind Divestment, 2 MTPA Alaska LNG Deal, and 5 Key Projects (2025 to 2026)

LNG Project Acceleration, Total Energies De-risks with North American Supply

In 2025 and 2026, Total Energies executed a pronounced strategic shift, prioritizing capital allocation and project execution in LNG over other low-carbon ventures to meet near-term global energy demand and de-risk its long-term portfolio.

• Before 2025, the company advanced a broad multi-energy strategy. The period from 2025 onward marked a clear pivot, demonstrated by the March 2026 decision to relinquish two US offshore wind leases and redirect $928 million toward oil, gas, and LNG projects.
• A critical milestone in 2025 was the lifting of force majeure on the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, signaling a renewed commitment to advancing high-impact, though geographically complex, international assets after years of delay.
• To balance the risk of projects like Mozambique, the company aggressively expanded its footprint in politically stable North American markets through a series of long-term offtake agreements, including deals with Alaska LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG, and Rio Grande LNG.
• This dual approach of advancing delayed mega-projects while securing new, lower-risk North American supply demonstrates a strategic effort to solidify its position as a top global LNG player and grow its sales portfolio toward its target of 60 MTPA by 2030.

$17.1 B in 2025 Capex, Total Energies Reallocates Capital from Wind to Gas

Total Energies‘ investment patterns in 2025 and 2026 reveal a deliberate reallocation of capital, deprioritizing US offshore wind to double down on cash-generative LNG and gas projects.

• The company’s total capital expenditure for 2025 reached $17.1 billion, with a substantial 37%, or approximately $6.3 billion, allocated specifically to developing new oil and gas projects.
• A defining strategic move occurred in March 2026 when Total Energies abandoned its US offshore wind ambitions, agreeing to receive $1 billion for its leases and reinvesting $928 million of it directly into its US oil, gas, and LNG operations.
• Investment in US LNG infrastructure was a key focus, highlighted by the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Phase 1 of the Rio Grande LNG project, in which Total Energies holds a 16.7% interest and committed to a $300 million equity stake in the project’s fourth train.

TotalEnergies Projects $15B Capex in 2026

The chart provides a specific data point on the company’s capital expenditure, supporting the section’s headline about 2025-2026 capex and capital reallocation towards gas projects.

(Source: Total Energies)

Table: Total Energies Strategic Investments (2025-2026)

Total Energies 4 Major Offtake Agreements, Next Decade to Glenfarne (2025 to 2026)

Total Energies fortified its future LNG supply chain between 2025 and 2026 by executing a series of strategic long-term partnerships and offtake agreements, primarily focused on securing cost-competitive volumes from North America.

• In February 2026, Total Energies entered into a 20-year agreement with Glenfarne Energy Transition to purchase 2 MTPA of LNG from the Alaska LNG project, a venture that includes a significant carbon capture component.
• The company expanded its Canadian portfolio in May 2025 by signing a 20-year deal to buy 2 MTPA from the Ksi Lisims LNG project, which also included acquiring an equity stake in the facility.
• Its commitment to the US Gulf Coast was deepened through multiple agreements with Next Decade for its Rio Grande LNG project, including an April 2025 deal for an additional 1.5 MTPA over 20 years.
• Beyond LNG, Total Energies also continued to pursue its multi-energy strategy, partnering with Allianz GI in Germany on power market flexibility assets and forming a joint venture with Clean Energy Fuels to develop renewable natural gas (RNG) production in the US.

Table: Total Energies Strategic Partnerships (2025-2026)

North America vs. Africa, Total Energies Geographic Portfolio Rebalancing

From 2025 onward, Total Energies strategically rebalanced its geographic LNG portfolio, using large-scale, long-term offtake agreements in North America to counterbalance the operational and geopolitical risks associated with its major development projects in Africa.

• The period was defined by a major push into North America, with new 20-year supply agreements locking in volumes from the United States (Rio Grande LNG, Alaska LNG) and Canada (Ksi Lisims LNG), regions valued for their political stability and resource scale.
• This North American expansion acts as a strategic hedge for the company’s high-value but high-risk assets elsewhere, most notably the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project.
• The decision to lift force majeure in Mozambique in October 2025 and advance the project toward a 2029 start date confirms Africa remains a long-term growth pillar, but the concurrent North American deals provide a more immediate and secure supply foundation.
• In Asia, the successful rebid for the Papua LNG project in December 2025 keeps another major growth option in play, positioning Total Energies with a globally diversified set of future supply sources to serve both European and Asian markets.

CCUS and Methane Abatement, Total Energies’ Decarbonization Technology

Total Energies is embedding decarbonization technologies into its LNG strategy not as a peripheral activity, but as a core requirement for securing its long-term social license to operate and maintaining access to climate-conscious markets like the EU.

• The company is moving beyond theoretical support for decarbonization to integrating it at the project level. The Alaska LNG offtake agreement, signed in 2026, is directly tied to a project planning a large-scale carbon capture facility.
• In response to tightening regulations like the EU Methane Regulation, which imposes new monitoring and reporting requirements from 2025, Total Energies is investing in advanced methane measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) technologies across its value chain.
• The company’s climate reports from 2025 highlight a focus on developing low-carbon liquefaction processes, aiming to reduce the GHG intensity of LNG at the source rather than relying solely on offsets.
• While not a direct developer, Total Energies‘ strategy relies on the maturation of technologies like onboard carbon capture for LNG carriers, where projects like Ever Lo NG are demonstrating capture rates up to 82%, to address scope 3 emissions in the future.

LNG Market Shifts Toward Tech-Driven Revenue

The chart aligns with the section’s focus on technology by highlighting the market’s shift toward tech-driven revenue, contextualizing the importance of investments in CCUS and abatement.

(Source: MarketsandMarkets)

SWOT Analysis, Total Energies LNG Strengths and Market Threats

Total Energies‘ LNG strategy in 2025 leverages its integrated portfolio and strong financial position to capture market opportunities, but faces significant external threats from future supply-demand imbalances and regulatory pressures.

• Strengths include a globally diversified portfolio and the financial capacity to execute large-scale projects and strategic acquisitions.
• Weaknesses are centered on the high capital costs and geopolitical risks tied to mega-projects like Mozambique LNG.
• Opportunities lie in the sustained LNG demand from Europe and Asia for energy security and coal-to-gas switching.
• The primary threat is the anticipated wave of new global LNG supply post-2027, which could depress prices and challenge the profitability of projects sanctioned today.

Global LNG Market to Exceed $286B by 2034

This chart illustrates a key ‘Opportunity’ for a SWOT analysis by projecting strong long-term growth in the global LNG market, providing a backdrop for TotalEnergies’ strengths and threats.

(Source: Market.us)

Table: SWOT Analysis for Total Energies’ LNG Initiatives

Post-2027 Supply Wave, Total Energies Contract Strategy is Critical

The most critical factor for Total Energies‘ long-term LNG success is its ability to insulate its portfolio from the anticipated post-2027 global supply glut through disciplined long-term contracting and cost control.

• If the market remains tight through 2026 as expected, watch for Total Energies to accelerate efforts to lock in customers for its uncontracted equity volumes from projects like Mozambique and Papua LNG under favorable oil-indexed terms.
• The progress of FIDs for major projects will be a key indicator. A swift and positive FID on Papua LNG would signal strong market confidence, while any further delays in Mozambique’s restart would be a negative signal.
• How Total Energies navigates the full implementation of the EU Methane Regulation from 2027 will be crucial. If the company can successfully demonstrate low methane intensity for its US-sourced LNG, it could gain a competitive advantage in the premium European market.
• These signals together indicate that while Total Energies is positioned for growth, its profitability in the next decade hinges less on volume and more on the commercial terms and emissions profile it can secure today.

LNG Production Capacity Forecasted to Grow Significantly

The chart directly visualizes the ‘Post-2027 Supply Wave’ mentioned in the section heading, illustrating the forecasted growth in production capacity that makes contract strategy critical.

(Source: Mordor Intelligence)

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of TotalEnergies’ commercial trajectory in the LNG market. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• What is actually happening with the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project since TotalEnergies lifted the force majeure in 2025?
• TotalEnergies’ investments and funding. Is the company on track to reach its 60 MTPA LNG sales portfolio target by 2030?
• Is TotalEnergies a good investment as it reallocates $928 million from US offshore wind to its LNG and gas portfolio?

This report does not answer these. Enki Brief Pro does.

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