ADNOC’s 2025 SAF Strategy: From Blueprint to Market Dominance
From Pilot to Pipeline: How ADNOC is Commercializing Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2025
ADNOC has aggressively accelerated its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) strategy, transitioning from broad feasibility studies between 2021 and 2024 to decisive commercial execution in 2025 by securing critical certifications and offtake agreements that signal a firm market entry.
- In the 2021–2024 period, ADNOC’s efforts were characterized by foundational partnerships, such as the January 2023 joint feasibility study with Masdar, bp, and Etihad Airways to explore SAF production. This exploratory phase contrasts sharply with the pivotal milestone in January 2025, when the company secured the ISCC EU/CORSIA PLUS certification, immediately enabling the commercial supply of SAF to international airlines at Abu Dhabi Airport.
- The company evolved from joining R&D bodies like the Air-CRAFT consortium in November 2023 to signing tangible commercial offtake Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) in 2025. A key example is the December 2025 agreement with MENA Biofuels to offtake SAF from the UAE’s first dedicated plant, which is set to produce 125 million litres annually.
- A strategic shift occurred from exploring future technologies, like the 2023 agreement with Zero Petroleum for e-fuels, to validating and leveraging existing assets for near-term revenue. This was confirmed in February 2025 by engineering firm Wood, which verified ADNOC Refining’s capability to produce Lower Carbon Aviation Fuel (LCAF) via co-processing, demonstrating a faster, capital-efficient route to market.
Analyzing ADNOC’s Multi-Billion Dollar Decarbonization and SAF Investments
ADNOC’s financial commitments have solidified its SAF ambitions, with a landmark $23 billion fund providing the muscle to translate strategic plans into operational reality. These investments are not just broad commitments but are increasingly targeted at building out the specific infrastructure and international access required for a global SAF and low-carbon energy business.
Table: ADNOC’s Strategic Investments in SAF and Enabling Technologies
| Partner / Project | Time Frame | Details and Strategic Purpose | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teesside Hydrogen Project | December 2025 | Acquired a stake in the UK’s Teesside hydrogen project, a first-of-its-kind UK investment for ADNOC. This secures access to blue hydrogen, a critical feedstock for e-SAF, and supports 15% of the UK’s 10 GW hydrogen target. | ADNOC makes first UK investment, boosting Teesside … |
| Decarbonization Fund | July 2025 | Allocated an initial $23 billion (AED 84.4 billion) to be deployed by 2030 for low-carbon energy solutions, including CCS, renewables, and sustainable fuels like SAF. This fund underpins the company’s entire energy transition strategy. | Understanding hydrogen and CCS in the UAE | Middle East |
| XRG Investment Vehicle | November 2024 | Launched XRG, a new investment vehicle with over $80 billion in assets dedicated to global investments in natural gas, chemicals, and lower-carbon solutions, providing a massive capital pool for future SAF projects. | ADNOC LAUNCHES XRG: AN $80+ BILLION LOWER- … |
| Rio Grande LNG Project | May 2024 | Acquired an 11.7% stake in Phase 1 of NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project in the U.S., expanding its lower-carbon portfolio with a key feedstock for blue hydrogen production. | ADNOC Secures Equity Position and LNG Offtake … |
| Habshan Carbon Capture Project | September 2023 | Made a final investment decision on one of the largest carbon capture projects in the MENA region, set to triple ADNOC’s capture capacity to 2.3 mtpa and provide a critical CO2 source for e-fuels. | ADNOC to invest in carbon capture project in MENA |
Building the SAF Ecosystem: ADNOC’s Key Partnerships from 2021-2025
ADNOC has strategically assembled a diverse coalition of partners, evolving from foundational R&D collaborations to a comprehensive ecosystem in 2025 that covers the entire SAF value chain—from feedstock sourcing and technology development to commercial offtake.
Table: ADNOC’s SAF and Decarbonization Partnership Timeline
| Partner / Project | Time Frame | Details and Strategic Purpose | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MENA Biofuels, Saybolt | December 2025 | ADNOC Global Trading signed an MoU as a key offtake partner for the UAE’s first commercial SAF plant in Fujairah, securing supply from an initial 125 million-litre production capacity. | MENA Biofuels, ‘Saybolt’ to establish UAE’s first SAF testing … |
| Microsoft, Masdar, XRG | November 2025 | Formed a strategic collaboration to deploy AI agents across ADNOC’s value chain, aiming to optimize production efficiency and minimize emissions for lower-carbon fuels. | ADNOC, Masdar, XRG and Microsoft to Advance AI for … |
| The Mercantile & Maritime Group | Q4 2025 | Signed an MoU to collaborate on both the production and offtake of SAF, indicating a deeper, integrated commercial partnership model. | The Energy Year |
| Masdar, bp, Tadweer, Etihad Airways | July 2025 | Launched a joint feasibility study to explore large-scale, dedicated SAF production facilities, including synthetic fuels and green hydrogen. This builds on an earlier study from 2023. | Understanding hydrogen and CCS in the UAE | Middle East |
| LanzaTech | February 2025 | Entered a strategic partnership to explore biotechnology solutions for decarbonizing fuels and chemicals, including advanced pathways for SAF production. | How ADNOC Is Leading the Future of Carbon Capture |
| Air-CRAFT Research Consortium | November 2023 | Joined a consortium with Boeing, Emirates, and others to accelerate R&D and industrialization of SAF technologies in the UAE. | UAE entities launch first-of-its-kind research consortium for … |
| Zero Petroleum | October 2023 | Signed an agreement to explore developing a synthetic fuel (e-fuels) plant in the UAE, focusing on the power-to-liquids pathway. | Zero & ADNOC Sign Agreement to Explore Synthetic Fuel … |
| Energy Web, RMI, Siemens Energy | November 2022 | Partnered on a blockchain initiative to create a transparent tracking and verification system for SAF to increase market trust and scalability. | Blockchain to be harnessed for sustainable aviation fuel |
From Local Hub to Global Player: Analyzing ADNOC’s Geographic Strategy
ADNOC has cemented the UAE as its primary hub for SAF production and commercialization while strategically expanding its international footprint in 2025 to secure enabling technologies and resources from key global markets.
- Between 2021 and 2024, ADNOC’s activities were almost exclusively domestic, centered on creating a foundational ecosystem within the UAE through initiatives like the Air-CRAFT consortium and local feasibility studies for SAF production in Abu Dhabi.
- In 2025, the domestic UAE focus intensified with concrete commercial actions that established a tangible market presence. This included securing ISCC certification for the Ruwais refinery, enabling SAF supply at Abu Dhabi Airport, and signing an offtake agreement for SAF from the new Fujairah plant being built by MENA Biofuels.
- A significant strategic expansion occurred in December 2025 with ADNOC’s first major UK investment in the Teesside hydrogen project. This move signals a new strategy to secure critical feedstocks like blue hydrogen from international partners, complementing its domestic efforts and building on earlier international plays like its 2024 stake in the U.S.-based Rio Grande LNG project.
Validating the Tech: ADNOC’s Shift to Commercial-Scale SAF Production in 2025
ADNOC has rapidly advanced its SAF technology portfolio from an exploratory R&D stage to a commercially viable, multi-pathway approach in 2025, spearheaded by the immediate deployment of certified co-processing technology.
- The 2021–2024 period was defined by forward-looking exploration, evidenced by partnerships to evaluate future technologies such as e-fuels with Zero Petroleum (2023) and gas fermentation biotechnology with LanzaTech (2023).
- A major technological and commercial validation arrived in 2025 with the ISCC EU/CORSIA PLUS certification for co-processing used cooking oil at its Ruwais refinery. This event, supported by a February 2025 capability confirmation from Wood, moved the co-processing pathway from concept to a commercially-ready product, demonstrating the viability of using existing large-scale assets.
- While commercializing co-processing for immediate market entry in 2025, ADNOC simultaneously advanced its long-term technology pipeline. This includes a new feasibility study for large-scale production with bp and Etihad and leveraging AI with Microsoft to optimize future plant efficiency, proving a sophisticated dual-track strategy to dominate both near-term and future SAF markets.
SWOT Analysis: Deconstructing ADNOC’s SAF Market Position
Table: SWOT Analysis of ADNOC’s SAF Strategy Evolution
| SWOT Category | 2021 – 2023 | 2024 – 2025 | What Changed / Resolved / Validated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strengths | Large capital base, extensive existing refining infrastructure, strong government backing. | $23B decarbonization fund allocated, ISCC certification secured, launch of $80B+ XRG investment vehicle, confirmed LCAF production capability by Wood. | ADNOC transitioned from having latent potential to deploying its financial and infrastructural might. Its strengths are no longer theoretical but have been validated and activated for SAF production and market entry. |
| Weaknesses | Limited experience in biofuels, heavy reliance on partners for new technology expertise (e.g., LanzaTech, Zero Petroleum), and a nascent domestic SAF market. | Near-term reliance on partners like MENA Biofuels for dedicated SAF plant supply; potential feedstock limitations for scaling co-processing at existing refineries. | The company has mitigated its expertise gap by building a diverse partnership ecosystem. However, the new challenge is scaling production to meet demand, which introduces new dependencies on feedstock availability and partner execution. |
| Opportunities | First-mover advantage in the MENA region, ability to align with UAE’s Net Zero goals, and leveraging national champions like Etihad and Emirates. | Positioned to become a dominant regional SAF hub, supplying international airlines at Abu Dhabi Airport, and using AI with Microsoft for a competitive edge in efficiency. | ADNOC successfully capitalized on its first-mover potential by securing the region’s first ISCC certification. The opportunity has evolved from creating a market to dominating a market it helped establish. |
| Threats | High cost of SAF (the “green premium”), intense competition from global energy majors entering the space, and uncertainty over which technology pathway would prove most viable. | Exponential growth in global SAF demand may outpace ADNOC’s production scale-up; managing the green premium to ensure commercial viability remains a critical challenge. | The company has de-risked technology uncertainty by pursuing multiple pathways (co-processing, e-fuels, biotech). The primary threat has shifted from technological risk to market risk—specifically, scaling fast enough while remaining commercially competitive. |
Future Outlook: What to Expect from ADNOC’s SAF Strategy in 2026
The critical next step for ADNOC is to convert its 2025 strategic agreements into binding contracts and final investment decisions, signaling a definitive transition from initial market entry to building large-scale, dedicated production capacity.
- The primary indicator to watch is the conversion of MoUs into firm, long-term offtake agreements. A binding contract with MENA Biofuels, specifying volumes and pricing, will be a key signal of commercial maturity and market confidence.
- A Final Investment Decision (FID) on a large-scale, dedicated SAF facility, which would be the logical outcome of the July 2025 feasibility study with bp and Etihad, will mark the strategic shift from leveraging existing assets to constructing new, purpose-built capacity.
- Monitor the tangible outcomes from technology partnerships, particularly the AI collaboration with Microsoft. Quantified metrics on emissions reduction or production cost savings will be crucial evidence of ADNOC’s ability to manage the SAF green premium and enhance its competitive advantage.
- Following the investment in the UK’s Teesside project, observe the first major SAF-related moves by the new XRG investment vehicle. Further international acquisitions in hydrogen, carbon capture, or feedstock supply chains will indicate an acceleration of its global strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the biggest change in ADNOC’s SAF strategy in 2025 compared to previous years?
In 2025, ADNOC shifted from foundational studies and R&D (2021-2024) to decisive commercial execution. A key milestone was securing the ISCC EU/CORSIA PLUS certification in January 2025, which allowed the company to begin commercially supplying SAF from its Ruwais refinery and sign tangible offtake agreements, such as the one with MENA Biofuels.
How is ADNOC financing its investments in SAF and decarbonization?
ADNOC’s strategy is backed by significant financial commitments, including an initial $23 billion decarbonization fund allocated in July 2025 for low-carbon projects. Additionally, it launched XRG, a new investment vehicle with over $80 billion in assets, to fund global investments in lower-carbon solutions like SAF.
What specific technologies is ADNOC using to produce SAF right now?
For immediate market entry, ADNOC is using co-processing technology at its existing Ruwais refinery to produce Lower Carbon Aviation Fuel (LCAF) from feedstocks like used cooking oil. This method was validated by engineering firm Wood and received ISCC certification in early 2025, allowing for a fast and capital-efficient route to market.
Has ADNOC’s SAF strategy expanded beyond the UAE?
Yes. While the UAE is its main production and commercial hub, ADNOC made its first major UK investment in December 2025 by acquiring a stake in the Teesside hydrogen project to secure feedstock for e-SAF. This follows its 2024 acquisition of a stake in the Rio Grande LNG project in the U.S., indicating a clear strategy to secure resources from key global markets.
What is the next major step for ADNOC’s SAF strategy in 2026?
According to the outlook, the critical next step is to convert its 2025 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) into binding, long-term offtake contracts and to make a Final Investment Decision (FID) on a new, large-scale dedicated SAF production facility, which would be the logical outcome of its feasibility study with bp and Etihad.
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