Exxon Mobil CCUS Offtakes: 9 Mtpa Contracted with Nucor & Linde, a $20 B Investment Plan (2024-2026)

CCUS Commercialization, Exxon Mobil Secures 9 Mtpa in Offtake Agreements

Exxon Mobil is accelerating its carbon capture business by securing binding commercial agreements with industrial emitters, shifting its strategy from primarily internal decarbonization to a third-party service model designed to generate new revenue streams. This “decarbonization-as-a-service” approach leverages the company’s core competencies to build a new, durable business line focused on the hard-to-abate industrial sector.

From Internal Focus to Third-Party Service Model

• In the period before 2025, Exxon Mobil’s carbon capture activities were largely concentrated on reducing emissions from its own operations. The strategy has now matured into a distinct commercial enterprise, with the company actively marketing end-to-end carbon management solutions to external clients.
• This commercial push has gained significant traction, with contracted CO₂ capture and storage capacity for third parties reaching approximately 9 million metric tons per year (Mtpa) by the end of 2025. This marks a material increase from the 6.7 Mtpa of third-party agreements reported in late 2024, demonstrating rapid market adoption.
• The customer base includes major industrial players across critical sectors, such as steel manufacturer Nucor, industrial gas company Linde, and ammonia producer CF Industries, validating the market need for reliable, large-scale decarbonization services.

Building End-to-End Infrastructure

• The commercial model is supported by a massive investment in physical infrastructure. Key projects include a new carbon capture facility in Louisiana which commenced operations in February 2026, expanding the company’s operational capacity.
• Exxon Mobil is building what it terms the world’s first large-scale, integrated carbon capture and storage system. The initial phase is concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, a region with a high density of industrial emitters and ideal geology for CO₂ storage.
• This infrastructure-led approach allows the company to create a network effect, offering capture, transport, and permanent storage as a bundled service, which leverages its extensive experience in project management, pipeline operations, and subsurface geology.

$20 B Investment, Exxon Mobil Allocates Capital for Low Carbon Solutions

Exxon Mobil has committed a substantial $20 billion for its low-carbon ventures through 2030, but this investment is strategically balanced against its larger capital expenditure in traditional oil and gas, indicating a dual-track approach to future energy markets. This financial strategy enables the company to build a new low-carbon business while continuing to supply conventional energy sources it projects will remain dominant for decades.

The Dual-Pronged Capital Strategy

• The $20 billion allocation for lower-emission investments is a long-term commitment intended to build durable business lines in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), hydrogen, and lithium. This represents a significant financial pivot toward the energy transition market.
• This commitment must be viewed within the context of the company’s total planned capital expenditure of $27-29 billion for 2025, much of which will continue to fund the growth of its traditional oil and gas portfolio.
• This dual investment reflects the company’s stated outlook that oil and gas will still constitute over half of the world’s energy supply in 2050, requiring continued investment to meet global demand.

Policy as a Financial Enabler

• The financial viability of these capital-intensive investments, particularly anchor projects like the $7 billion blue hydrogen facility in Baytown, Texas, is highly dependent on supportive government policies.
• The U.S. Section 45 Q tax credit is a critical financial incentive that underwrites the economics of these projects. The policy provides a tax credit for each ton of carbon captured and securely stored, directly improving project returns.
• With industry-wide costs for CO₂ capture estimated between $60 and $120 per ton, these policy supports are essential for bridging the economic gap and enabling the business to scale profitably.

Table: Select Exxon Mobil Low Carbon Solutions Investments and Projects

Exxon Mobil 3 Key Offtake Deals with Nucor, Linde, and CF Industries (2025-2026)

Exxon Mobil’s carbon capture strategy is validated by a series of high-profile offtake agreements with major industrial players, creating a predictable revenue base to support its infrastructure build-out. These partnerships are essential for de-risking the multi-billion-dollar capital investments required to establish its CCUS hubs.

Securing Anchor Customers in Hard-to-Abate Sectors

• The agreement with steel manufacturer Nucor to capture, transport, and store up to 800, 000 metric tons of CO₂ annually from its direct reduced iron (DRI) plant in Louisiana is a cornerstone deal demonstrating the model’s value to the steel industry.
• A partnership with industrial gas giant Linde adds another key customer to the portfolio, with a joint project slated to begin operations in 2026. This expands the service model into the hydrogen and industrial gas production sector.
• A long-term agreement to transport and store up to 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually for CF Industries, a leading manufacturer of nitrogen products, anchors the service offering in the agricultural and chemical sectors.

Technology and Demonstration Partnerships

• Beyond securing offtake, Exxon Mobil is also advancing technology through targeted collaborations. A partnership with BASF will develop and pilot a new methane pyrolysis technology at the Baytown complex, aiming to produce low-emission hydrogen and solid carbon.

Table: Key Exxon Mobil Carbon Capture Partnerships and Offtake Agreements

US Gulf Coast Focus, Exxon Mobil Concentrates CCUS Infrastructure in Texas and Louisiana

Exxon Mobil is strategically concentrating its initial large-scale carbon capture and storage infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf Coast, capitalizing on the region’s unique combination of dense industrial emissions and favorable geological formations for permanent storage. This geographic clustering is designed to create a competitive moat through economies of scale and network effects.

The Rationale for Regional Concentration

• The Gulf Coast region is home to one of the highest concentrations of industrial facilities in the United States, including refineries, chemical plants, and manufacturing sites. This provides a large, addressable market of potential customers for a CCUS service business, which RMI has estimated represents a $100 billion opportunity in Texas alone.
• The subsurface geology of the region is exceptionally well-suited for large-scale, permanent CO₂ sequestration. The presence of saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs reduces project risk and transportation costs.
• By focusing on a single geographic area, Exxon Mobil can build an interconnected system of CO₂ pipelines and storage sites. This network approach lowers the per-ton cost for all users and creates a more efficient and resilient system.

Key Projects in the Gulf Coast Hub

• The planned $7 billion blue hydrogen and carbon capture facility in Baytown, Texas, serves as the anchor project for this regional hub, designed to capture its own emissions and potentially those from nearby facilities.
• In Louisiana, the company started operations at a new carbon capture project in February 2026. This expands its operational footprint and adds critical storage capacity to the network.
• The locations of key partner projects, including those with Nucor and CF Industries in Louisiana, further solidify the state’s role as a central node in Exxon Mobil’s developing CCUS network.

SWOT Analysis, Exxon Mobil CCUS Strengths and Policy Dependencies

Exxon Mobil’s CCUS strategy leverages its core engineering strengths and first-mover advantage in building large-scale service hubs, but its success is acutely exposed to regulatory uncertainty and the high-cost, historically challenging nature of CCS projects.

Preview of SWOT Findings

• The company’s primary strengths are its unparalleled experience in managing complex, capital-intensive energy projects and its significant existing infrastructure footprint and subsurface expertise along the Gulf Coast.
• Key weaknesses include the high inherent cost of CCS technology, which is currently estimated at $60-$120/ton, and public perception challenges that associate CCUS with prolonging the use of fossil fuels.
• The main opportunity is the vast, nascent market for industrial decarbonization, driven by corporate net-zero targets and growing regulatory pressure.
• The most significant threat is policy risk, particularly the potential for future administrations to alter or remove crucial financial incentives like the Section 45 Q tax credit, which underpins the business model’s profitability.

Table: SWOT Analysis for Exxon Mobil Carbon Capture Initiatives

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Market Set for Triple-Digit Growth by 2034
The global Carbon Dioxide Utilization (CDU) market is forecast to surge from $5.90 billion in 2025 to $18.32 billion by 2034, representing a robust 210% growth. This trajectory underscores escalating demand for converting captured CO2 into valuable products, such as fuels, chemicals, and building materials, driven by climate targets and circular economy mandates.

Economic Viability for Carbon Capture Projects Strengthened by Expanding CDU Market
The projected expansion of the Carbon Dioxide Utilization market to over $18 billion by 2034 creates significant economic opportunities for companies investing in carbon capture. For players like ExxonMobil, this market growth provides crucial pathways to monetize captured CO2, transitioning carbon capture from a compliance expenditure to a potential revenue-generating asset, thereby de-risking and accelerating large-scale project deployment.

(Source: Precedence RESEARCH — via Growing Low Carbon Solutions | ExxonMobil Sustainability)

Exxon Mobil 2026 Outlook: Executing on 9 Mtpa in Offtake Agreements

The most critical variable for Exxon Mobil’s carbon capture business in 2026 is its ability to execute its contracted projects on schedule and on budget, as any delays or cost overruns could undermine market confidence in its “decarbonization-as-a-service” model. Successful delivery will be the ultimate validation of its strategy and a powerful signal to both customers and competitors.

Monitoring Project Execution and Offtake Growth

• If Exxon Mobil successfully brings its new projects with Linde and Nucor online in 2026 as planned, this will strongly validate its execution capabilities and likely attract a new wave of industrial customers looking for proven decarbonization partners.
• Watch for announcements of new offtake agreements that push contracted capacity beyond the current 9 Mtpa. A continued strong pace of new contracts would signal robust, growing market demand and further de-risk the next phase of infrastructure investments.
• These events could be happening: Increased competitive activity from other energy majors launching similar large-scale CCUS hubs, or a diversification of Exxon Mobil’s geographic focus beyond the U.S. Gulf Coast into regions like Europe or Southeast Asia.

The Critical Role of Policy Stability

• If the Section 45 Q tax credit framework remains stable or is enhanced, it will provide the financial certainty needed for Exxon Mobil to sanction future multi-billion-dollar projects and accelerate the build-out of its CCUS network.
• Watch for any legislative or administrative actions that could threaten the long-term value or availability of these credits. The company has explicitly stated its investment pace is conditional on sustained policy support.
• These events could be happening: The establishment of similar incentive structures in other major industrial regions, which could prompt Exxon Mobil to replicate its U.S. Gulf Coast model globally to capture international market share.

The questions your competitors are already asking

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• Other companies offering carbon capture services
• New carbon capture projects US Gulf Coast
• US carbon capture tax credit changes
• Industries signing carbon capture deals

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