Gazprom Offshore Wind Strategy: Zero Projects, Power of Siberia 2 Deal with China, as Market Hits 92 GW (2021 to 2025)

Strategic Divergence, Gazprom Fossil Fuel Focus vs. 92 GW Offshore Wind Market

In 2025, Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom deliberately abstained from the global offshore wind sector, instead intensifying its focus on legacy fossil fuel projects. This strategic entrenchment in natural gas, underscored by the advancement of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China, positions the company in direct opposition to the accelerating energy transition and the strategies of international competitors. While the global offshore wind market expanded to an estimated 92 GW of installed capacity, Gazprom remained entirely disengaged from this high-growth sector.

Gazprom’s Fossil Fuel Entrenchment

Gazprom’s commercial activities in 2025 centered exclusively on securing long-term demand for its natural gas and expanding its hydrocarbon footprint in non-Western markets. This strategic direction was validated by the legally binding agreement signed in September 2025 for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a project designed to cement its energy relationship with China. Concurrently, the company pursued traditional offshore oil and gas exploration in regions like Vietnam and Equatorial Guinea, directing its capital and operational expertise away from any form of renewable energy diversification.

Contrasting Global Wind Adoption

The company’s fossil fuel pivot occurred as the global offshore wind market experienced significant momentum, with a projected growth of 36% in installed capacity during 2025 alone. This expansion was driven by substantial investments and policy support in key markets. The divergence places Gazprom in stark contrast to the strategies of other major energy firms like Shell and BP, which, despite recalibrating their approaches, maintain significant portfolios and operational roles in the offshore wind value chain. The market’s growth signals a clear, commercially viable path that Gazprom has opted not to pursue.

£4 B in Grid Links, Competitor Offshore Wind Investments While Gazprom Abstains

While billions in capital flowed into offshore wind projects and critical infrastructure in 2025, Gazprom‘s investment program showed zero allocation to renewables, committing its financial resources entirely to its traditional hydrocarbon assets. This lack of investment in the energy transition isolates the company from a major global growth market and contrasts sharply with the activities of both specialized investors and other national oil companies like ADNOC, which began entering the offshore wind sector.

Global Capital Flow into Wind

The offshore wind sector’s attractiveness to investors was demonstrated by several large-scale financial commitments during the year. In November 2025, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners announced a landmark investment of over £2.3 billion for a new offshore wind farm in the Philippines, highlighting the sector’s global reach. Earlier in the year, UK regulator Ofgem opened bidding for £4 billion in electricity transmission links, essential infrastructure to connect new offshore wind capacity to the grid and a clear signal of strong government backing.

Gazprom’s Hydrocarbon Capital Allocation

Gazprom‘s capital allocation in 2025 remained fixed on its core business. The company’s offshore activities were limited to hydrocarbon development projects, with no integration of renewable energy. Its announced 2026 investment program of RUB 1, 100 billion (approximately $11 billion) further signals a continued commitment to its oil and gas operations, prioritizing assets like the Nord Stream and Turk Stream pipelines over diversification into new energy technologies.

Table: Competitor Offshore Wind Investments (2025)

Asia vs. Europe, Gazprom’s Geographic Pivot Away from Renewables

Geopolitical shifts in 2025, driven by Europe’s determined effort to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, compelled Gazprom to execute a strategic pivot eastward. This geographic reorientation of its fossil fuel strategy toward Asia solidified its isolation from the world’s most advanced offshore wind markets in Europe, which were simultaneously accelerating their renewable energy build-out as a direct response to Russian energy policies.

Gazprom’s Eastward Pivot

The European Union’s REPower EU plan, which aims to end dependency on Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, effectively closed off Gazprom‘s most lucrative historical market. In response, the company focused on securing long-term demand in Asia, with the Power of Siberia 2 agreement with China as the centerpiece of this strategy. This move prioritizes securing offtake for its primary commodity over diversifying its energy portfolio or geographic risk profile.

Europe’s Renewables Acceleration

While Gazprom looked east, Europe doubled down on its energy transition. The REPower EU plan explicitly fast-tracks investments in wind and solar energy to bolster energy security. The £4 billion tender for UK grid connections is a direct result of this policy push, creating a robust, state-supported market for offshore wind development. This dynamic highlights a fundamental strategic schism: while Europe builds renewable capacity to displace Russian gas, Gazprom invests in infrastructure to sell that same gas elsewhere.

Technology Opportunity Cost, Gazprom Ignores Mature Offshore Wind Market

By 2025, offshore wind stands as a commercially mature technology with a global installed base and a clear innovation trajectory, yet Gazprom demonstrates no engagement with it. This inaction represents a significant opportunity cost, as the company remains dependent on its legacy hydrocarbon technologies while competitors in the offshore wind space are advancing next-generation solutions for deeper waters and improved environmental integration.

Maturity of Fixed-Bottom Wind

With an estimated 92 GW of global installed capacity by the end of 2025, fixed-bottom offshore wind is a proven, bankable technology. Its continued expansion is driven by falling costs and established supply chains. Gazprom‘s absence from this market means it is foregoing participation in a multi-billion dollar industry that many of its peers, including Total Energies and Petrobras, consider a core component of their future energy portfolios.

Innovation in Floating and Deep-Water Tech

The offshore wind sector is not static; it is actively innovating to unlock new resources. In 2025, a partnership between Entrion Wind and Global Maritime was formed to advance deep-water monopile technology, aiming to lower the cost of foundations in deeper waters. In another example, the Demo SATH floating wind project installed biomimetic reefs to enhance marine biodiversity. These forward-looking developments, which leverage deep-water expertise similar to that of oil and gas operators like Chevron and Eni, represent a technological frontier that Gazprom is completely ignoring.

Gazprom SWOT Analysis, 1 Fossil Fuel Strategy vs. Market Transition (2021-2025)

An analysis of Gazprom‘s strategic position between 2021 and 2025 shows a company fortifying its strengths in the natural gas sector while accumulating significant weaknesses and threats by failing to adapt to the global energy transition. The company’s decision to forego the opportunities presented by the high-growth renewables market in favor of its legacy business model has defined its trajectory during this period.

Table: SWOT Analysis for Gazprom’s Energy Strategy

$11 B 2026 Budget, Gazprom Scenario Modeling Confirms Fossil Fuel Path

If Gazprom‘s approved 2026 investment plan of RUB 1, 100 billion (approximately $11 billion) is executed as stated, watch for a further deepening of its fossil fuel strategy, primarily focused on non-Western markets. There are no credible signals to suggest a near-term deviation toward renewable energy, positioning the company on a path of increasing strategic isolation from the global energy transition.

• If this strategy continues, watch for progress on the financing and construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, as this project is now central to the company’s long-term financial health.
• Expect further announcements of oil and gas exploration and development agreements in Africa, Asia, and other non-sanctioning regions as Gazprom seeks to replace lost European revenue.
• The trajectory of the global offshore wind market, which the IEA expects to add 140 GW of new capacity between 2025 and 2030, will continue to highlight the scale of the growth opportunity Gazprom is foregoing.
• Developments in the EU regarding the REPower EU plan’s implementation will serve as a key indicator of how quickly Gazprom‘s legacy markets will permanently shrink, adding pressure to its eastward pivot.

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of Gazprom’s offshore energy strategy. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• Power of Siberia 2 pipeline construction status
• Oil and gas companies investing in offshore wind projects
• New offshore wind projects in Asia
• China long term natural gas import strategy

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