Eni’s Geothermal Strategy 2025: An Analysis of Data, Derisking, and Diverted Capital

Industry Adoption: How Eni is Leveraging Subsurface Data for Geothermal Energy

Between 2021 and 2024, Eni’s engagement with geothermal energy was foundational, characterized by building capabilities rather than deploying large-scale projects. The company focused on leveraging its core oil and gas competencies, forming partnerships to enhance subsurface modeling software like ECHELON and participating in global energy transition dialogues with bodies like IRENA. The strategy was to position geothermal as a key source of baseload renewable power by applying advanced geosciences and supercomputing power, like its HPC5, to explore technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and closed-loop systems in abandoned wells. This period represented a technological and strategic incubation phase, where Eni invested in the tools and knowledge required to de-risk geothermal exploration without committing major capital to operational assets.

From January 2025 to the present, a significant inflection point has emerged. Eni has validated its foundational work through tangible results, with a key study demonstrating its data-reuse strategy could identify a commercially promising geothermal reservoir at 2,300 meters with 125°C temperatures and an exploitation potential of 70 kg/s. This successful application of its oil and gas data to derisk geothermal projects—calculating a specific LCOE of €0.33/kWh and OPEX of €0.4 million—signals a shift from theoretical capability to proven methodology. However, this progress is juxtaposed with a clear capital allocation strategy that prioritizes other sectors. While Eni aligns with maturing industry technologies like binary cycle plants and AI-driven exploration, its major partnership and investment announcements in 2025 have been in multi-billion-dollar LNG projects in Mozambique and Indonesia, and a landmark billion-dollar power purchase agreement for fusion energy. This duality reveals a sophisticated strategy: Eni is creating a pipeline of low-risk, data-validated geothermal options through its renewables arm Plenitude, but is currently directing its massive capital flows towards LNG and long-term bets like fusion, treating geothermal as a valuable option rather than a primary growth engine.

Table: Eni’s Geothermal-Related Investments and Capital Allocation

Table: Eni’s Strategic Partnerships Relevant to Geothermal Development

Geography: Eni’s Diverging Footprint for R&D and Capital

Between 2021 and 2024, Eni’s geothermal-related activities were geographically centered in Europe, particularly its home market of Italy. Research into repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells for deep closed-loop geothermal solutions was focused there. Broader energy transition investments in the UK also created a potential avenue for geothermal exploration. The company’s technology partnerships, such as with US-based Stone Ridge Technology, reflected a global approach to sourcing enabling tools, but the application focus remained close to its European operational hub.

In 2025, a stark geographical divergence has become apparent. While the successful data-derisking study for a geothermal reservoir likely involves European assets, Eni’s major capital deployment has shifted decisively elsewhere. The company is pouring tens of billions into oil and gas projects in North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Egypt) and major LNG developments in Mozambique and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia). This reveals that while Europe, specifically Italy, remains the hub for Eni’s geothermal R&D and pilot-level validation, its investment-grade capital is flowing to regions that support its legacy hydrocarbon and LNG businesses. The mainstreaming of geothermal for Eni is currently a European analytical exercise, not a global investment priority.

Technology Maturity: Eni’s Shift from Exploration to Validation

In the 2021-2024 period, Eni’s focus was on technologies in the demonstration and pilot phases. The company was exploring the feasibility of deep closed-loop systems in abandoned wells and conducting research on Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Its most mature and scalable assets were enabling technologies transferred from its oil and gas business: advanced subsurface simulation software (ECHELON) and high-performance computing (HPC5). These tools were commercially mature but were being piloted for a new application in geothermal resource assessment.

By 2025, Eni’s strategy has progressed to the validation stage. The successful identification of a 125°C reservoir via data reuse is a critical validation point, moving the data-derisking concept from a hypothesis to a proven methodology. While Eni is not pioneering next-generation drilling, it is a key beneficiary of a maturing industry where technologies like AI-driven exploration, binary cycle plants, and hydraulic fracturing for EGS are becoming commercially scalable, as seen in deals by Ormat and Sage Geosystems. Eni’s most mature and commercially ready “product” in the geothermal space is not a power plant, but its ability to generate derisked, investment-ready project blueprints. This data-centric approach is now a validated, scalable process, ready for commercial application either internally via Plenitude or through partnerships.

Table: SWOT Analysis of Eni’s Geothermal Strategy

Forward-Looking Insights and Summary

The most recent data from 2025 signals that Eni is pursuing a highly calculated and risk-averse geothermal strategy. The company is not making a head-first dive into building and operating geothermal plants; instead, it is perfecting its role as a “project originator,” using its unparalleled subsurface data and analytical prowess to create a portfolio of de-risked, investment-ready opportunities. This approach minimizes upfront capital risk while creating valuable assets that can be developed by its subsidiary Plenitude or sold to partners when market conditions and incentives, like the Inflation Reduction Act, align.

Looking ahead, market actors should monitor three key signals. First, watch for a Final Investment Decision (FID) from Plenitude on a commercial-scale geothermal project based on one of these data-driven studies; this would be the first true test of the strategy’s commercial viability. Second, look for a formal partnership between Eni and a specialized geothermal developer like Fervo Energy or Sage Geosystems, which would indicate a shift from enabler to active participant. Finally, track Plenitude’s capital allocation announcements for explicit, multi-million-euro commitments to geothermal, which would signal a change in its priority status. For now, Eni’s data-centric approach is gaining internal traction, but its capital continues to favor the familiarity and scale of LNG. For decision-makers, tracking these nuanced signals is critical. Continuous monitoring of Eni’s strategic choices provides the clarity needed to anticipate its next move in the evolving energy landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Eni actively building and operating its own geothermal power plants?
No, not on a large scale. Eni’s current strategy is not focused on deploying major capital to build and operate geothermal plants. Instead, it is acting as a ‘project originator,’ using its vast oil and gas data and supercomputing power to identify and derisk potential geothermal sites. These validated opportunities can then be developed by its subsidiary, Plenitude, or through future partnerships.

If Eni has a successful geothermal strategy, why is it investing billions in gas and fusion instead?
The analysis reveals a dual-track strategy. Eni is allocating its massive capital—tens of billions of dollars—to its core, high-return LNG projects in places like Mozambique and Indonesia. At the same time, it’s making long-term, high-tech bets on future energy sources like fusion. Geothermal is being treated as a valuable, lower-risk option to develop, but it is not currently a primary growth engine receiving major capital investment.

What was the major breakthrough for Eni’s geothermal efforts in 2025?
In 2025, Eni validated its foundational strategy. A key study demonstrated that by reusing existing oil and gas data, the company could successfully identify a specific, commercially promising geothermal reservoir (125°C at 2,300 meters). This proved that its data-centric approach could effectively derisk projects and calculate key financial metrics like LCOE and OPEX, moving the strategy from a theoretical capability to a proven methodology.

What is the role of Eni’s subsidiary, Plenitude, in this strategy?
Plenitude is Eni’s renewables and retail arm and is positioned as the potential developer for the geothermal projects that Eni identifies. Eni’s core business creates the pipeline of derisked, investment-ready geothermal opportunities, which Plenitude can then choose to build and operate, turning the analytical work into operational assets.

What is the main risk to Eni’s cautious geothermal strategy?
The primary threat is being outmaneuvered by more focused and agile competitors. While Eni perfects its role as a project ‘enabler,’ other companies like Fervo Energy and Sage Geosystems are moving quickly from pilots to commercial-scale projects and securing significant funding. There is a risk that Eni’s slower, data-first approach will cause it to miss out on prime development opportunities as the industry accelerates.