Linde’s Hydrogen Dominance in 2025: An Analysis of its Infrastructure-First Strategy

Industry Adoption: How Linde Shifted from Announcing to Dominating the Hydrogen Supply Chain

Between 2021 and 2024, Linde PLC meticulously laid the groundwork for its hydrogen ambitions, strategically positioning itself not as a fuel cell manufacturer, but as the master architect of the entire hydrogen value chain. This period was characterized by large-scale, forward-looking announcements and foundational technology development. Major commitments were made, including a $1.8 billion investment to supply OCI’s blue ammonia project on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a partnership with Daimler Truck to develop subcooled liquid hydrogen (sLH2) refueling technology. These moves signaled a clear strategy: control the production, distribution, and refueling of hydrogen, thereby becoming the indispensable “picks and shovels” provider to the burgeoning fuel cell market. The focus was on building capacity for both green hydrogen, via projects like the 35 MW PEM electrolyzer in Niagara Falls, and blue hydrogen, securing the technological and commercial foundations for future growth.

Entering 2025, Linde’s strategy has transitioned from foundational planning to aggressive execution and market consolidation. The earlier announcements have coalesced into a formidable project backlog now exceeding $10 billion. The company has doubled down on a pragmatic, near-term approach, with 90% of its U.S. clean hydrogen projects focused on blue hydrogen, citing that green hydrogen remains five to seven years from economic competitiveness. This is validated by a new $400 million investment to supply a low-carbon ammonia facility in Louisiana. This inflection point from announcement to execution demonstrates a critical shift. The variety of applications—from enabling fuel cell forklifts and heavy-duty trucks (via the sLH2 standard) to supplying massive industrial complexes—proves the strategy’s versatility. This broad-spectrum adoption across mobility and heavy industry signals that Linde is successfully creating a captive market, positioning itself to profit regardless of which specific fuel cell technology or manufacturer ultimately prevails.

Table: Linde’s Multi-Billion Dollar Hydrogen Investment Portfolio

Table: Linde’s Key Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Partnerships

Geographic Footprint: Linde’s Strategy for Securing Global Hydrogen Hubs

Between 2021 and 2024, Linde’s geographic strategy was concentrated on establishing anchor projects in North America’s key industrial corridors and Europe’s technology centers. The announcement of the $1.8 billion blue hydrogen complex for OCI in Beaumont, Texas, and the $2 billion facility for Dow in Alberta, Canada, established a powerful footprint in regions with abundant natural gas and favorable carbon capture geology. Simultaneously, investments in Leuna, Germany, to build the world’s largest PEM electrolyzer at the time, positioned Linde at the forefront of Europe’s green hydrogen push. This dual-continent, dual-color hydrogen strategy allowed the company to tap into the distinct advantages of each region: policy support and industrial demand in North America, and advanced green technology development in Europe.

From 2025 onwards, Linde’s geographic activity has shifted from establishing these initial beachheads to reinforcing them and expanding into new high-growth markets. The U.S. remains a priority, with the $400 million investment in Louisiana’s “Blue Point” project solidifying its dominance along the Gulf Coast industrial spine. This region is clearly being developed as a major blue hydrogen/ammonia export hub. The most significant evolution is the increased activity in Asia. The partnership with Korea Western Power to deploy hydrogen for power generation and the launch of Taiwan’s first demonstration refueling station via its Linde LienHwa joint venture signal a strategic pivot to capture growth in Asia-Pacific markets. This tells us that after securing foundational industrial hubs in the West, Linde is now replicating its infrastructure-led model in Asia, targeting nations with aggressive national decarbonization and hydrogen mobility targets. The risk here is navigating disparate regulatory environments, but the opportunity is to establish first-mover advantage in the world’s fastest-growing energy markets.

Technology Maturity: Linde’s Pragmatic Path from Green Hydrogen Pilots to Blue Hydrogen Scale

In the 2021–2024 period, Linde’s technology focus was on advancing and scaling key components across the value chain. On the production side, this was demonstrated by the commitment to build a 24 MW PEM electrolyzer in Leuna, Germany, and the order for a 35 MW system from Cummins for Niagara Falls, pushing the boundaries of green hydrogen production. Concurrently, the company was in a crucial development phase for end-use technology, most notably the collaboration with Daimler Truck to engineer the sLH2 refueling protocol. This phase was about proving out and scaling up the core technologies required for a hydrogen economy, from electrolysis for green H2 to high-performance refueling solutions for mobility. The company was also deploying mature commercial products, like its HyPower fuel cells for forklifts and building over 15 bus refueling stations, demonstrating readiness at a smaller scale.

The period from 2025 to today marks a significant shift in technology strategy, characterized by pragmatic commercialization over idealistic pursuits. Linde has explicitly stated its belief that green hydrogen will not be economically competitive for another five to seven years. Consequently, its technology deployment has pivoted heavily toward blue hydrogen at massive commercial scale, with 90% of its U.S. projects leveraging natural gas with carbon capture. The multibillion-dollar projects with Dow and OCI, which use autothermal reforming with CCS, are the flagships of this now-commercial strategy. The sLH2 technology, once in development, has now been presented as a market-ready standard, moving from pilot to a commercially scalable solution. While Linde continues to make strategic investments in green hydrogen (e.g., the €4.3M Leuna expansion), these are positioned as future-proofing moves. The current, dominant trend is the scaling of blue hydrogen infrastructure, validating it as the bridge technology to build market share and infrastructure today.

Table: SWOT Analysis of Linde’s Hydrogen Strategy (2021-2025)

2026 Outlook: What to Expect from Linde’s Hydrogen Strategy

The data from 2025 paints a clear picture of Linde’s trajectory for the year ahead: relentless execution on its blue hydrogen-centric infrastructure build-out. The most critical signal to watch is the commissioning of the $1.8 billion OCI blue ammonia project in Texas, expected in 2025. Its successful start-up will serve as the ultimate validation of Linde’s large-scale autothermal reforming with CCS model, setting a commercial and operational benchmark for the industry. A second key signal will be the industry’s reaction to the sLH2 refueling standard developed with Daimler Truck. Wider adoption by other truck OEMs or infrastructure players would cement Linde’s technological leadership in the high-value heavy transport sector. We should expect to see Linde announce further long-term supply agreements for its major projects, systematically de-risking its $10 billion+ backlog. While strategic green hydrogen investments will continue, they will remain secondary to the main effort of scaling blue hydrogen. For energy executives and investors, the key takeaway is that Linde is not betting on the future of hydrogen; it is building it, and its strategy is generating a powerful, defensible moat based on scale, long-term contracts, and control of physical infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Linde focusing on blue hydrogen instead of green hydrogen?
Linde is focusing on blue hydrogen as a pragmatic, near-term strategy because it believes green hydrogen will remain five to seven years away from being economically competitive. The article states that 90% of Linde’s U.S. clean hydrogen projects are focused on blue hydrogen, allowing the company to build massive commercial scale and infrastructure today, such as the multi-billion-dollar projects with Dow and OCI.

What is Linde’s “infrastructure-first” or “picks and shovels” strategy?
This strategy means that instead of manufacturing end-use products like fuel cells, Linde is focused on controlling the entire supply chain: the production, distribution, and refueling of hydrogen. By building this essential infrastructure, Linde positions itself as the indispensable supplier to the entire fuel cell market, aiming to profit regardless of which specific technology or manufacturer wins.

What are the biggest financial commitments Linde has made to its hydrogen strategy?
The article highlights a project backlog exceeding $10 billion. Specific major investments mentioned include a $2 billion clean hydrogen facility in Alberta, Canada; a $1.8 billion complex in Beaumont, Texas to supply OCI’s blue ammonia project; and a $400 million investment for an industrial gas plant in Ascension Parish, Louisiana.

How is Linde’s strategy expanding geographically?
After establishing major projects in North American industrial corridors (Texas, Louisiana, Alberta) and European technology hubs (Leuna, Germany), Linde is now expanding into Asia. The article points to a new partnership with Korea Western Power for power generation and the launch of a refueling station in Taiwan as evidence of a strategic pivot to capture growth in Asia-Pacific markets.

What is the main risk to Linde’s current hydrogen strategy?
According to the SWOT analysis, the primary threat is the possibility that green hydrogen costs fall much faster than Linde’s five-to-seven-year projection. This technological disruption could make Linde’s significant investments in blue hydrogen infrastructure less competitive or potentially strand those assets sooner than expected.