Perovskite Solar Price Collapse, LONGi and Jinko Ship 90 GW Amid $1.54 B in Losses and a US Policy Shift (2025 to 2026)

Solar Manufacturing Crisis: LONGi and Jinko Suffer $1.54 B in Losses Despite 90 GW Shipments

The global solar industry entered a severe consolidation phase in 2025, defined by a paradox where record module shipments by leaders like LONGi and Jinko Solar coincided with massive financial losses due to structural overcapacity and a ruinous price war. This marks a stark contrast to the growth-focused period of 2021-2024, shifting the industry’s strategic imperative from scale to survival through technological differentiation and financial discipline.

The Paradox of Volume and Value

In 2025, both Jinko Solar and LONGi solidified their market leadership, each shipping between 80 GW and 90 GW, a volume that underscores their immense manufacturing scale. This record output, however, failed to translate into profitability. A persistent price war, fueled by industry-wide overcapacity, led the top four Chinese manufacturers to report combined net losses of nearly RMB 11 billion (US$1.54 billion) in the first half of 2025 alone.

Industry Correction and Stalled Efforts

The widespread financial strain represents a critical market correction, forcing a “Darwinian moment” where operational efficiency and profitability are displacing the prior era’s focus on sheer volume. An industry-led “anti-involution” initiative to curb reckless expansion has largely failed to gain traction. The resulting erosion of market confidence is reflected in LONGi’s stock price, which fell over 40% from its peak in November 2025, signaling investor concern over the sector’s financial health.

Leading PV Manufacturers Face Profit Collapse Despite Scale
Major PV module suppliers like LONGi and Jinko, critical players in achieving high shipment volumes, are forecasted to plunge into significant net losses by 2024-2025. This indicates a severe mismatch where increasing production capacity and shipments no longer translate to financial viability due to brutal price competition.

Unsustainable Volume-Driven Strategy Threatens Industry Stability
The impending profit crisis reveals that a relentless pursuit of GW shipment targets, while driving global solar adoption, has commoditized modules to an unsustainable degree. This jeopardizes long-term investments, forces consolidation, and threatens the financial health of even market leaders, potentially impacting future innovation and supply chain stability.

(Source: infolink — via LONGi Solar 2026, 45 GW Shipments, Jinko Solar 80 GW – EnkiAI)

$14 B in Cancellations: US Solar Projects Reel from the 2025 OBBBA Policy Shift

A significant policy reversal in the United States, a key solar import market, directly intensified the global manufacturing crisis by creating a demand shock that led to widespread project cancellations and job losses throughout 2025 and into 2026. This external pressure compounded the internal challenges of oversupply and price collapse already facing manufacturers like LONGi.

The OBBBA Act’s Immediate Impact

The passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)” on July 4, 2025, abruptly curtailed crucial federal incentives like the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC). This fundamentally altered project economics for developers, including major players like Next Era, and destabilized a significant portion of the global demand forecast.

Quantifying the Project and Job Losses

The immediate aftermath saw over $14 billion in planned clean energy projects canceled across the U.S. in 2025, directly reducing the addressable market for modules from global suppliers. The disruption extended into the workforce, with the U.S. renewable energy manufacturing sector experiencing a net loss of 5, 900 jobs in the first quarter of 2026, reversing the growth seen in prior years and highlighting the far-reaching effects of the policy shift on the entire solar market.

Table: US Clean Energy Project Cancellations (2025 to 2026)

US vs. China: LONGi and Jinko Navigate Divergent Market Realities (2025 to 2026)

While Chinese manufacturers like LONGi and Jinko Solar dominate global production, their path to profitability is complicated by starkly different and increasingly challenging conditions in key overseas markets. The strategic landscape of 2025-2026 is defined by managing a domestic supply glut while navigating protectionist policies and infrastructure constraints abroad.

China’s Production Dominance Amid Internal Crisis

China remains the undisputed epicenter of solar manufacturing, with its top firms accounting for 58% of the 536 GW of global module shipments in 2025. However, this dominance is also the source of the oversupply crisis, forcing a domestic strategic pivot from prioritizing scale to emphasizing technology-driven value as a means of survival.

Policy Headwinds in the US Market

The U.S. market, previously a major growth driver, has become a source of significant demand uncertainty following the 2025 OBBBA policy shift. This not only impacts import volumes but also strengthens the competitive position of domestic manufacturers like First Solar and Qcells, who are insulated by different policy frameworks and trade protections.

The Universal Grid Bottleneck

A common challenge spanning all geographies is the growing strain on grid infrastructure. Record-long grid connection queues are now a global phenomenon, delaying project commissioning by years and capping the rate of solar deployment. This infrastructure limitation affects demand for all manufacturers, creating a ceiling on growth that low prices alone cannot overcome.

Technology as a Lifeline: LONGi Pushes Efficiency Records as TOPCon Becomes Standard

In a commoditized market defined by collapsing prices, technological differentiation has emerged as the primary survival strategy. The period from 2025-2026 is characterized by a two-pronged technology race: firms like Jinko Solar focus on mastering and scaling the current dominant N-type technology, while innovation leaders like LONGi pursue next-generation efficiency records to create higher-margin products.

LONGi’s Pursuit of Next-Generation Efficiency

LONGi has centered its strategy on R&D leadership, achieving a world-record efficiency of 34.85% for its perovskite-silicon tandem cells in June 2026. This breakthrough followed its certified HIBC module efficiency record of 26.4% in April 2026, positioning the company at the frontier of PV technology and signaling a pathway to escape the commoditization trap.

Jinko’s Mastery of Mass-Market N-Type

In contrast, Jinko Solar’s strategy has centered on the rapid scaling of N-type TOPCon technology. This technology, which largely displaced legacy PERC cells in 2025, now achieves mass-production efficiencies of 24-25%. By becoming the new industry workhorse, TOPCon provides the volume needed to maintain market share during the downturn.

SWOT Analysis: LONGi Navigates the Solar Market Downturn

LONGi’s strategic position reflects an industry in transition, where its immense manufacturing scale and technological leadership (Strengths) are directly challenged by severe market-wide price deterioration (Weaknesses), adverse policy shifts in key markets (Threats), and the urgent need to successfully pivot to new growth areas like energy storage (Opportunities).

Table: SWOT Analysis for the Solar Manufacturing Sector (2021 to 2026)

Scenario Modelling: LONGi’s Path Through the 2026 Solar Trough

The most critical factor for LONGi and the solar sector’s recovery through the industry trough in 2026 is the speed and depth of market consolidation. If weaker players exit and capacity is rationalized, price stabilization could begin by late 2026 or early 2027, allowing technology leaders to regain pricing power and restore profitability.

Signals for Market Bottoming

Watch for a slowdown in new capacity announcements and a rise in M&A activity throughout the second half of 2026. This would signal that the industry trough has been reached and consolidation is accelerating. Such a trend would be the first concrete sign that the supply-demand imbalance is beginning to correct, a necessary precondition for price recovery.

The Energy Storage Pivot

The success of strategic diversification will be a key indicator of corporate resilience. Monitor the growth in energy storage shipments from both LONGi (targeting 6 GWh) and Jinko Solar (targeting 10 GWh). Strong performance in this segment provides a crucial alternative revenue stream to offset compressed module margins and demonstrates a viable path to a more diversified business model.

Policy and Infrastructure Triggers

Any positive movement on resolving grid connection backlogs in the U.S. and Europe or a clarification of trade policies could unlock significant latent demand. Conversely, further protectionist measures or continued delays in grid investment will prolong the downturn by keeping deployment rates artificially low, regardless of module prices.

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of the global solar manufacturing crisis. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• solar manufacturers at risk of bankruptcy 2026
• LONGi Jinko energy storage shipment revenue
• perovskite solar mass production timeline
• US solar incentive policy after 2026

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