Equinor’s Hydrogen Reset: Inside the 2025 Pivot from Global Ambition to Regional Pragmatism

Industry Adoption: Equinor’s Recalibration from Pan-European Hydrogen Export to Integrated Regional Hubs

Between 2021 and 2024, Equinor pursued a grand design for the European hydrogen economy, built on its strengths in natural gas and carbon capture. The strategy was expansive, targeting a 10% share of Europe’s clean hydrogen market by 2035 through the development of 3-5 major industrial clusters. This ambition was underpinned by plans for gigawatt-scale blue hydrogen projects and, most notably, a strategic partnership with RWE to build a hydrogen pipeline from Norway to Germany, envisioning up to 10 GW of production capacity. This period was characterized by the formation of broad, exploratory partnerships across Europe and North America to lay the groundwork for a large-scale export market. However, market realities intervened. In September 2024, Equinor scrapped the flagship Germany pipeline project, citing insufficient offtake demand and prohibitive costs. This event marked a critical inflection point, exposing the disconnect between ambitious production targets and the commercial readiness of the market.

Entering 2025, Equinor’s strategy demonstrates a significant recalibration. The company has pivoted from broad, speculative goals to a more focused and pragmatic approach centered on integrated regional ecosystems, primarily in the UK and Northwest Europe. This is not a withdrawal but a calculated retreat to more defensible positions. The focus has shifted to developing tangible projects within markets that offer clearer political support and concentrated industrial demand. A prime example is the deepening collaboration in the UK’s Humber region with partners SSE Thermal and Centrica. This has yielded concrete progress, such as securing planning consent for the 35 MW Aldbrough green hydrogen-to-power project. Furthermore, Equinor is now skillfully bridging its legacy business with future low-carbon markets. Its massive £20 billion, 10-year gas supply deal with Centrica now includes a forward-looking clause to co-develop up to 2.2 GW of green and blue hydrogen capacity. This shift from building speculative infrastructure to securing demand within existing commercial relationships reveals a more mature, risk-averse strategy designed to navigate the economic headwinds that stalled earlier, grander ambitions.

Table: Equinor’s Hydrogen-Related Investments (2021-2025)

Table: Equinor’s Key Hydrogen Partnerships (2021-2025)

Geography: Equinor’s Concentrated Bet on European Industrial Clusters

Between 2021 and 2024, Equinor’s geographic focus for hydrogen was ambitious and widespread. The strategy centered on a major Norway-to-Germany energy corridor, underpinned by partnerships with RWE, SEFE, and VNG. The goal was to export large volumes of blue hydrogen to decarbonize Germany’s industrial heartland. Simultaneously, the company established significant beachheads in the UK’s Humber region and pursued opportunities in Belgium with ENGIE. Its ambitions even stretched to North America through partnerships with Tallgrass and U.S. Steel, exploring clean energy hubs in the US. This broad geographic canvas reflected a belief in a rapidly emerging, interconnected global hydrogen market.

From 2025, Equinor’s map has been redrawn. The cancellation of the Germany pipeline project effectively dismantled the Norway-Germany export axis as the central pillar of its strategy. The focus has sharply contracted to two core European industrial clusters: the Humber region in the UK and the Eemshaven area in the Netherlands. Activity in the UK has intensified, with projects like H2H Saltend, H2H Easington, and the Aldbrough green hydrogen facility positioning the Humber as Equinor’s primary battleground. In the Netherlands, the 1 GW H2M Eemshaven project with Linde remains a key priority. This geographic concentration mitigates risk by focusing resources on regions with strong government support, existing industrial offtakers, and access to CCUS infrastructure. While new, broader MOUs with entities like POSCO (South Korea) and Naftogaz (Ukraine) exist, the capital-intensive project development is now firmly rooted in Northwest Europe’s most mature industrial hubs.

Technology Maturity: Equinor’s Pivot from Giga-Scale Blueprints to Tangible Green Shoots

In the 2021-2024 period, Equinor’s technological focus was firmly on commercializing large-scale blue hydrogen production. The core technology was Autothermal Reforming (ATR) combined with CCUS, targeting a carbon capture rate of over 95%. This was the chosen pathway for its gigawatt-scale flagship projects like H2H Saltend (600 MW) and H2M Eemshaven (1 GW). For H2H Saltend, it selected Johnson Matthey’s LCH™ technology. Green hydrogen, while on the radar, was largely confined to smaller pilot-scale initiatives, such as the HyPilot project in Norway to test Hystar’s advanced PEM electrolyser and the AquaSector study for a 300 MW offshore electrolyzer. The strategy was to use proven, scalable technology (ATR) to build the market first.

The period from 2025 onwards reveals a more nuanced technology strategy. While ATR for blue hydrogen remains central to large-scale plans, these projects face commercial hurdles, with the H2H Saltend FID delayed to around 2027. The most significant shift is the tangible progress in green hydrogen. The Aldbrough project, featuring a 35 MW PEM electrolyzer, secured planning consent in May 2025, marking a key validation point for an integrated green hydrogen-to-power system. This is the first of Equinor’s projects to move from plan to a consented, commercially-oriented green hydrogen facility. Concurrently, Equinor’s venture arm has become more active, making targeted investments in potentially disruptive early-stage technologies. The investments in Hysun (solar-to-hydrogen) and HySiLabs (novel hydrogen carrier) are bets on future technologies that could solve the fundamental cost and logistics barriers that currently hinder both blue and green hydrogen, indicating a dual strategy: advance commercial-ready projects pragmatically while nurturing the next wave of innovation.

Table: SWOT Analysis of Equinor’s Hydrogen Strategy Evolution

Forward-Looking Insights and Summary

Equinor’s hydrogen strategy in 2025 is a masterclass in adapting to market realities. The data signals a clear move away from the “build it and they will come” approach of the early 2020s toward a more calculated, de-risked model. For the year ahead, expect this pragmatism to deepen. The company is no longer trying to create the entire European market; it is focused on winning in specific, high-potential industrial clusters. Market actors should pay close attention to three key signals. First, the outcome of the “Hydrogen Open Season” for the H2M Eemshaven project will be a critical litmus test for the commercial appetite for blue hydrogen in continental Europe. Second, progress on the Humber Hydrogen Hub, particularly the Aldbrough project targeting a 2029 start, will be a bellwether for the viability of integrated green hydrogen ecosystems in the UK. Finally, Equinor’s venture investments, though small, are potent signals of the technological bottlenecks the company believes must be solved for long-term success. While the grand export pipelines are on hold, Equinor is meticulously laying a more resilient foundation, positioning itself as a fast follower ready to scale when the economics align, without jeopardizing its financial stability today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the main trigger for Equinor’s change in hydrogen strategy in 2025?
The primary trigger was the cancellation of the flagship hydrogen pipeline project from Norway to Germany in September 2024. The project was scrapped due to insufficient customer demand and prohibitive costs, revealing a major disconnect between Equinor’s large-scale ambitions and the commercial readiness of the market. This forced a pivot to a more pragmatic, risk-averse strategy.

What is the key difference between Equinor’s old hydrogen strategy and its new, more pragmatic approach?
The old strategy (2021-2024) was expansive, aiming to create a pan-European export market centered on a 10 GW pipeline to Germany. The new strategy (2025 onwards) is a focused retreat to more defensible positions. It prioritizes creating integrated regional ecosystems, like in the UK’s Humber region, where hydrogen production, storage, and industrial demand are co-located, thereby de-risking projects by securing demand first.

Is Equinor abandoning blue hydrogen in favor of green hydrogen?
No, Equinor is not abandoning blue hydrogen. Blue hydrogen production using natural gas with carbon capture (CCUS) remains central to its large-scale plans, such as the H2H Saltend project. However, the new strategy shows a more nuanced, dual-track approach. While large blue hydrogen projects face delays, Equinor is simultaneously making tangible progress on commercially-oriented green hydrogen projects, like the consented Aldbrough facility, to build experience and market presence.

Which geographic areas are now the focus for Equinor’s hydrogen projects?
Equinor’s geographic map has been redrawn. After cancelling the major Norway-Germany export axis, its focus has sharply contracted to two core European industrial clusters: the Humber region in the UK (with projects like H2H Saltend and Aldbrough) and the Eemshaven area in the Netherlands (with the H2M Eemshaven project). These areas offer a combination of strong political support, concentrated industrial demand, and access to CCUS infrastructure.

How does Equinor’s partnership with Centrica exemplify its new hydrogen strategy?
The partnership with Centrica is a prime example of the new strategy. Instead of building speculative infrastructure, Equinor secured a massive £20 billion, 10-year natural gas supply deal that includes a forward-looking clause to jointly develop up to 2.2 GW of hydrogen capacity. This approach skillfully bridges its legacy gas business with future low-carbon markets, securing a major future customer (offtaker) for its hydrogen before committing to massive capital investment.