Onshore Wind Rebound, Ørsted’s $1.7 B Sale to CIP, 7 GW Added in 2025, and 25 GW in the Pipeline (2024 to 2026)
The United States onshore wind market experienced a notable recovery in 2025 after a decade-low installation year in 2024, driven by increasing electricity demand and the residual momentum of federal incentives. However, the sector simultaneously faced significant headwinds from policy uncertainty, permitting delays, and strategic divestments by key players. While new capacity additions surged, future growth forecasts were tempered by political risks, leading to a complex and evolving landscape for developers, operators, and manufacturers.
Market Rebound vs. Policy Headwinds: US Onshore Wind Project Installations (2024 to 2025)
The U.S. onshore wind sector showed resilience with a strong installation rebound in 2025, but this growth is set against a backdrop of increasing non-technical risks that could hinder the project pipeline. The market’s trajectory is no longer defined solely by technology costs but by its ability to navigate grid limitations and an unstable policy environment.
2025 Installation Surge
After installations hit a decade low in 2024 with just 4.2 GW of new capacity, the U.S. onshore wind market rebounded sharply in 2025. Multiple analyses confirm this significant year-over-year growth, though the exact figures vary. Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP) projected over 7 GW of new wind capacity in 2025, a 36% increase from 2024. This rebound brought the nation’s total cumulative onshore capacity to over 161 GW by the end of 2025. The growth in actual generation was more modest, increasing by 3% in 2025 compared to 2024 levels.
Project Pipeline and Demand Drivers
Despite the challenges, the pipeline for future development remains robust, with the U.S. entering 2025 with 25 GW of onshore wind projects under development across 79 sites. A primary driver for this continued interest is the surging demand for electricity, particularly from new data centers needed to support AI growth. This has prompted utilities like Xcel Energy to pursue substantial new investments in onshore wind generation to meet anticipated load increases.
Persistent Headwinds
The sector’s growth is not without obstacles. Reports from 2025 highlight that a potential change in federal administration could “slam the brakes” on wind and solar growth, creating significant uncertainty for projects reliant on tax credits and favorable policies. Beyond political risk, developers continue to face long interconnection queues and complex permitting processes, which act as a major constraint on converting the development pipeline into operational assets. The fact that 30 GW of onshore wind projects already face delays underscores the severity of these non-market barriers.
| Data Provider⇅ | Market Segment⇅ | 2024 Installed Capacity (GW)⇅ | 2025 Installed Capacity (GW)⇅ | Source⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WWEA | Onshore Wind | 4.20 | 6.30 | Global Statistics ↗ |
| Wood Mackenzie / ACP | Onshore Wind | 7 | US expected to install over 7 GW of wind capacity in 2025, 36 … ↗ | |
| Wood Mackenzie (via Renewables Now) | Onshore Wind | 8.20 | US wind installations to gain pace through 2028 – Wood Mackenzie ↗ | |
| American Clean Power Association | Onshore Wind | 6.90 | US onshore wind installations continue to increase despite … ↗ |
Ørsted Divests Onshore Portfolio, A Strategic US Market Shift
A pivotal development in the U.S. onshore market was the strategic exit of Danish energy giant Ørsted, which divested its entire American onshore portfolio in early 2026. This move signals a significant re-evaluation of market risks and returns by a major global renewables player, highlighting a shift in corporate strategy away from the U.S. onshore sector.
Portfolio Divestment Details
The divestment shows a clear pattern of risk reduction and capital reallocation by Ørsted. The company’s departure from the U.S. onshore market was a two-step process that concluded with the sale of its remaining assets. This follows a trend of portfolio adjustments among large developers in response to market volatility and evolving strategic priorities.
Table: Key Ørsted Divestments in U.S. Onshore Wind (2024-2026)
| Partner / Project | Time Frame | Details and Strategic Purpose | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) | Feb 2026 | Sale of Ørsted‘s remaining U.S. onshore wind business for approximately $1.7 billion. This marked the company’s complete exit from the U.S. onshore sector to focus on its core offshore wind and other renewables businesses. | Wall Street Journal |
| Stonepeak | Mar 2024 | Ørsted sold a 49% stake in a portfolio of four U.S. onshore wind farms with a combined capacity of 957 MW for approximately $300 million. The projects are located in Texas and Nebraska. This was an initial step to “farm-down” assets and recycle capital. | Reuters |
| Company⇅ | Market Segment⇅ | Company Type⇅ | Key Activity / Status⇅ | Date⇅ | Source⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ørsted | Onshore Wind Development | Developer / Operator | Sold its entire U.S. onshore business to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for $1.7 billion. | Feb 3, 2026 | Orsted Sells Onshore Business for $1.7 Billion After Judge … ↗ |
| Ørsted | Onshore Wind Development | Developer / Operator | Divested stakes in four U.S. onshore wind farms (957 MW total) to Stonepeak for ~$300 million. | Mar 13, 2024 | Orsted sells stakes in U.S. wind farms for $300 mln | Reuters ↗ |
| GE Vernova | Turbine Manufacturing | OEM | Ranked 4th globally for cumulative turbine installations (125 GW). | May 14, 2026 | GWEC records sharp rise in wind turbine installations, as … ↗ |
| Siemens Gamesa | Turbine Manufacturing | OEM | Ranked 3rd globally for cumulative turbine installations (148 GW). | May 14, 2026 | GWEC records sharp rise in wind turbine installations, as … ↗ |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | Onshore Wind Development | Developer / Operator | Listed as a top company in the North America wind energy market. | Mar 9, 2025 | Top Companies in North America Wind Energy Market | 2026 ↗ |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S | Turbine Manufacturing | OEM | Remains one of the top five turbine suppliers globally and in Europe. | May 16, 2025 | Wind Turbine Suppliers deliver new record volume ↗ |
Market Maturity: 161 GW Installed Capacity vs. Future Growth Constraints
While the U.S. onshore wind market is technologically mature with over 161 GW of installed capacity, its future growth trajectory is now constrained more by non-technical factors like policy stability and grid interconnection backlogs than by the technology itself. The central challenge has shifted from proving the technology’s viability to navigating the external systems required for its deployment.
- Between 2021 and 2024, market growth was primarily a function of decreasing levelized costs of energy and the availability of Production Tax Credits (PTCs). The focus was on scaling up turbine technology and project size to maximize efficiency and capture incentives.
- Starting in 2025, the dominant constraints shifted to external factors. The conversation among developers and investors is now centered on the risks of permitting delays, the immense backlog of projects in interconnection queues, and the political uncertainty surrounding federal energy policy.
- The technology itself is proven and commercially available at scale from multiple global manufacturers. The primary variables impacting project viability and timelines are now outside the control of turbine OEMs and relate to grid infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
| Forecast Provider⇅ | Market Segment⇅ | Forecast Horizon⇅ | Projected New Capacity (GW)⇅ | Source⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airswift (citing U.S. Wind Energy Monitor) | Onshore Wind | 2025-2029 | 33 | 10 US wind energy projects starting in 2026 and beyond – Airswift ↗ |
| GWEC | Onshore Wind | 2025-2030 | 63 | GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2025 ↗ |
SWOT Analysis: US Onshore Wind Market Opportunities and Threats (2024 to 2025)
The U.S. onshore wind market is caught between strong underlying demand drivers and significant external pressures that threaten to slow development. The analysis reveals that while the installed base and project pipeline provide a solid foundation, policy-related threats and strategic divestments by key players create considerable uncertainty for the near-term future.
Table: SWOT Analysis for the U.S. Onshore Wind Market
| SWOT Category | 2021 – 2023 | 2024 – 2025 | What Changed / Resolved / Validated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strengths | Mature technology with declining costs. Strong federal policy support (PTC/ITC). A growing base of experienced developers and operators. | Large installed base (over 161 GW). Robust project pipeline (25 GW). Established domestic supply chain components. | The market’s scale is now a core strength, providing operational data and a foundation for repowering projects. The technology is no longer the key variable. |
| Weaknesses | Emerging supply chain constraints. Increasing local opposition (NIMBYism). Early signs of grid congestion in wind-rich regions. | Decade-low installation in 2024 (4.2 GW) exposed market volatility. Severe grid interconnection delays. Heavy reliance on stable federal policy. | The 2024 slowdown validated the market’s vulnerability to macroeconomic and policy shifts. Grid access has become a critical, rather than secondary, weakness. |
| Opportunities | Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives providing long-term certainty. Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for decarbonization goals. | Surging electricity demand from data centers and electrification. Repowering older wind farms with more efficient turbines. Green hydrogen production. | New demand from the digital and industrial sectors has emerged as a primary growth driver, partially offsetting potential weakness in traditional utility procurement. |
| Threats | Interest rate hikes and inflation increasing project costs. International supply chain disruptions. | Significant political risk from potential changes in federal administration. Strategic divestment by major players like Ørsted. Persistent permitting bottlenecks. | The threat of policy reversal has become the most significant risk factor. Ørsted‘s exit validates the idea that major international players are actively de-risking from U.S. onshore exposure. |
Future Scenarios: Will Policy Uncertainty Stall the US Onshore Wind Pipeline?
The primary variable for the U.S. onshore wind sector’s performance through 2026 is the stability of federal energy policy, which could either sustain the 2025 rebound or trigger a significant slowdown in new project development. The 25 GW project pipeline is contingent on a predictable investment climate.
- If this happens: A new federal administration in 2025 actively works to repeal or undermine the clean energy incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act. This could involve direct legislative action or indirect measures that create regulatory uncertainty for project financing.
- Watch this: A sharp decline in new project announcements and, more critically, Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) during the second half of 2025 and into Q 1 2026 would be a leading indicator of a market contraction.
- These could be happening: In such a scenario, developers would likely delay projects, seeking to preserve capital while awaiting policy clarity. Investment could shift to more stable international markets, such as Europe or even competing markets like China, and the ambitious 25 GW pipeline could experience significant attrition as projects are canceled or indefinitely postponed.
The questions your competitors are already asking
This report covers one angle of the U.S. onshore wind market’s trajectory. The questions that matter most depend on your work.
- US wind projects stuck in interconnection queues
- Corporate power purchase agreements for wind data centers
- Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners US onshore wind strategy
- US wind farm repowering projects 2025
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