LONGi Solar Overcapacity, $1.54 B H 1 Losses with Jinko Solar, 357 GW 2024 Installations (2024 to 2025)

China’s PV Sector Risks: 357 GW Added in 2024 Leads to Overcapacity and Price Correction

China’s solar industry achieved unprecedented installation scale in 2024-2025, but this rapid expansion created severe overcapacity, triggering intense price wars and financial instability for its leading manufacturers. The period marked a transition from unrestrained growth to a market correction, forcing a government-led restructuring and a strategic pivot by key players toward new technologies and international project development to alleviate domestic pressures.

Record Installations and Market Saturation

• In 2024, China installed a record 357.3 GW of new solar capacity, representing nearly 60% of the global total and bringing its cumulative capacity to over 880 GW. The country’s total installed solar capacity subsequently exceeded 1 Terawatt (TW) in early 2025.
• This massive build-out, part of a broader Chinese cleantech push, led to an oversaturated domestic market. After peaking at 93 GW in May 2025, new monthly solar additions fell to just 14 GW in June 2025, signaling a sharp slowdown.
• In response to the market turmoil, the Chinese government initiated a PV industry restructuring in July 2025 to manage the overcapacity and guide the sector toward more sustainable growth after a period of intense internal competition.

The Shift to Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

• As the PV market contended with saturation, China accelerated its investment in Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), a technology valued for its ability to provide stable, dispatchable power. In 2025, the country connected nine new CSP projects, bringing its national total to 27 plants with a cumulative installed capacity of 1, 738.2 MW.
• Major state-owned enterprises are leading this charge. POWERCHINA began construction on a 200 MW tower CSP project in March 2024, and the country launched two new 350 MW “Gen-3” CSP pilot projects in July 2025, marking a significant step in scaling the technology.

Financial Strain: $1.54 B in H 1 2025 Losses for China’s Top 4 Solar Manufacturers

The market’s price collapse directly translated into significant financial losses for China’s largest solar module producers, despite record shipment volumes. The first half of 2025 revealed a severe profitability crisis, where leading firms reported substantial losses, highlighting the unsustainability of the ongoing price war and prompting a slowdown in new investments.

Profitability Crisis for Leading Firms

• In the first half of 2025, China’s four largest solar manufacturers, LONGi, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar, reported combined net losses of nearly RMB 11 billion (US$1.54 billion).
• This occurred even as these companies shipped a massive 65 GW of modules in Q 1 2025 alone. Jinko Solar, for example, posted a net loss in its first-quarter 2025 financial results despite high production, demonstrating a clear disconnect between market share and financial performance.

Slowing Investment Projections

• The financial strain and market saturation led to a more cautious investment outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its 2025 World Energy Investment analysis that after years of rapid growth, clean energy investment in China was expected to slow and potentially decline slightly in 2025.
• While companies like LONGi reported strong technical progress in their 2024 annual report, particularly with its BC (Back-Contact) cell technology, the financial results from 2025 show that technological leadership did not insulate it from the severe market downturn.

Table: Financial Performance of Top Chinese Solar Manufacturers (2025)

POWERCHINA’s Global EPC Contracts: 342 MW in Uzbekistan and Projects in Panama and Zambia (2024-2025)

While domestic manufacturers contended with a profitability crisis, state-owned giants like POWERCHINA expanded their global footprint by securing major Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts for large-scale solar projects. This strategy serves as an outlet for China’s vast manufacturing capacity and positions the country as a dominant force in global renewable energy project delivery.

Expanding into Asia and Africa

• In December 2024, POWERCHINA signed a contract for what is described as Southeast Asia’s largest single photovoltaic power station, reinforcing its presence in a key growth market.
• The company secured an EPC contract in October 2024 to build a 342 MW solar project in Uzbekistan, followed by an additional large-scale solar EPC contract in the country in January 2025.
• In Africa, POWERCHINA launched Zambia’s largest single PV project in May 2025, demonstrating its role in developing renewable infrastructure across the continent.

Latin American and Middle Eastern Presence

• POWERCHINA extended its reach into Latin America, signing an agreement in December 2024 to develop solar power in Panama.
• The company also showcased its capabilities in the Middle East, with its PV 3 Solar Project in the UAE featured as a key cooperative project in May 2025, highlighting its involvement in one of the world’s most competitive solar markets.

Table: Selected International EPC Projects by POWERCHINA (2024-2025)

SWOT Analysis: China’s Solar Sector Strengths and Emerging Weaknesses (2024-2025)

The Chinese solar sector’s primary strength, its massive manufacturing scale, became its central weakness in 2024-2025, creating market instability that can only be resolved through consolidation and strategic diversification. An analysis of the sector reveals a landscape where historical advantages are now creating significant internal threats, while new opportunities are emerging in adjacent technologies and international markets.

• Strengths: The sector’s core strength remains its unparalleled manufacturing capacity and complete control over the global PV supply chain, supported by strong government directives for renewable energy deployment.
• Weaknesses: This scale has led to severe overcapacity and destructive price wars, resulting in widespread unprofitability for even the largest producers.
• Opportunities: Key opportunities include exporting modules and EPC services to meet global demand, diversifying into technologies like CSP and large-scale battery storage, and a healthier market post-consolidation.
• Threats: The primary threats are growing international trade protectionism, potential for widespread bankruptcies if prices do not recover, and limitations on domestic grid capacity to absorb new generation.

Table: SWOT Analysis for China’s Solar Sector (2024-2025)

Scenario Modelling: Industry Consolidation and Export Push for China’s Solar Sector

The most critical trajectory for China’s solar sector in the coming year is a government-influenced consolidation, where financially distressed manufacturers are either acquired or exit the market, while survivors aggressively pursue overseas EPC and module supply contracts to offload capacity. The signals from 2025 indicate that the era of hyper-growth is over, replaced by a fight for survival and a strategic reorientation toward profitability and international markets.

Signal: Manufacturer Consolidation

• If the negative profit margins reported in H 1 2025 persist through the end of the year, watch for a wave of M&A activity and potential bankruptcies among tier-two and tier-three manufacturers who lack the scale and financial buffer of the top players. The government’s planned industry restructuring will likely accelerate this process to create a smaller group of healthier, state-backed champions.

Signal: Aggressive Export Strategy

• The sharp increase in international EPC contracts signed by POWERCHINA in late 2024 and 2025 is a leading indicator of this trend. Watch for module manufacturers like Trina Solar and Jinko Solar to increasingly partner on or directly pursue overseas project development to secure outlets for their products, moving beyond simple module sales. This shift is critical as both the domestic Chinese market and US solar projects face their own unique growth constraints.

China’s Solar Investment Explodes, Dominating Clean Energy Funding
China’s investment in solar power capacity surged over tenfold from approximately 100 billion yuan in 2019 to over 1,000 billion yuan by 2024, making it the dominant clean energy investment. Overall clean power investment in China hit roughly 1,600 billion yuan in 2024, driven overwhelmingly by solar.

(Source: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief — via Guest post: Saudi Arabia's surprisingly large imports of solar panels from China – Carbon Brief)

China’s Solar Capacity Skyrockets to 887 GW by 2024
China’s utility-scale solar electric generating capacity is projected to reach an astounding 887 GW by 2024, representing an exponential growth trajectory from just 2.4 GW in 2012. This rapid expansion solidifies China’s position as the global leader in solar power.

(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration — via China's Solar PV Dominance & Global Shifts | Enerdata)

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of the Chinese solar industry’s market correction. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• Which Chinese solar companies will survive consolidation
• New international solar projects by Chinese companies
• Cost and bankability of new China CSP projects
• US and EU trade actions against Chinese solar panels 2025

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