Switch’s 12 GW Nuclear Bet: How SMRs Are Powering the 2025 AI Data Center Boom

Industry Adoption: Switch’s SMR Strategy Rewrites the Rules for Powering AI

The convergence of artificial intelligence and energy demand has forced a strategic reckoning across the tech industry, with data center operator Switch emerging as a decisive first-mover. Between 2021 and late 2024, the tech sector’s interest in nuclear power grew steadily, marked by significant but comparatively modest commitments. Amazon targeted around 5 GW through various collaborations, and Google partnered with Kairos Power for 500 MW, signaling a clear trend. However, the inflection point arrived in December 2024 with Switch’s historic announcement of a non-binding Master Power Agreement with SMR developer Oklo. This plan to secure up to 12 gigawatts (GW) of carbon-free power through 2044 utterly redefined the scale of ambition, dwarfing previous corporate commitments and signaling a fundamental shift from exploration to large-scale strategic dependency on nuclear power.

The period from January 2025 to today has been characterized by a move from declaration to the complex realities of execution. The industry is now grappling with the implications of Switch’s massive demand signal. In a direct response, Oklo announced in March 2025 that it was boosting its Aurora reactor capacity to 75 MW, a design change specifically tailored to meet the escalating energy needs of AI data centers like Switch’s “AI Factories.” This reveals a powerful new dynamic where a major offtaker’s needs are directly shaping pre-commercial technology development. The application is no longer a generalized clean energy goal but a targeted, mission-critical solution for providing the vast, uninterrupted baseload power essential for AI workloads. This specificity presents a new opportunity—the creation of a purpose-built energy infrastructure for the AI era—but also a new threat: Switch’s entire strategy is now inextricably linked to the success of a single, nascent SMR technology and its ability to navigate a gauntlet of regulatory and supply chain hurdles.

Table: Switch’s Landmark SMR Partnership

Geographic Focus: Why Switch’s Nuclear Ambitions are Centered on the U.S.

Between 2021 and 2024, North America solidified its position as the primary nexus for tech-driven SMR partnerships. While nations like the UK and Canada made progress with projects from Westinghouse and Ontario Power Generation, the most aggressive corporate demand originated in the United States, driven by companies like Amazon, Google, and ultimately, Switch. Switch’s December 2024 announcement centered its nuclear ambitions squarely on its U.S. data center campuses, particularly its massive hubs in Las Vegas, establishing a clear domestic focus for its 12 GW plan. This geography is not accidental; it is a direct function of where the world’s largest data infrastructure is being built.

Since the start of 2025, the geographic activity has shifted from broad declarations to the granular, site-specific challenges of U.S.-based deployment. The critical path now runs through American regulatory bodies, principally the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which must license Oklo’s technology before any construction can begin. Furthermore, the development of a viable High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel supply chain is a national-level challenge centered in the U.S. that is critical to the project’s success. This intense domestic focus makes the U.S. the undisputed leader for data center-driven SMR deployment, but it also concentrates risk. The success of Switch’s multi-billion-dollar energy strategy is now contingent on the efficiency and approval of a single country’s regulatory and industrial ecosystem, a risk that market watchers must monitor closely.

Technology Maturity: How Switch is Accelerating Oklo’s SMR Path to Commercialization

In the 2021-2024 period, the SMR industry was defined by promising but pre-commercial technology. Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse was an advanced concept, and the broader market faced sobering realities, such as the collapse of NuScale’s flagship UAMPS project in late 2023, which highlighted the immense financial and logistical hurdles to commercialization. Switch’s 12 GW agreement in December 2024 was therefore a monumental bet on a technology that existed largely on paper. It was a pure demand signal, asserting a need for a product that was not yet available at scale.

The period from 2025 to the present has demonstrated the profound impact of that demand signal. The most significant validation point occurred in March 2025, when Oklo announced an upgrade of its Aurora reactor design from 50 MW to 75 MW. This was not a routine engineering update; it was a direct response to the power density requirements of AI workloads, as articulated by its key potential customer, Switch. This feedback loop, where a major offtaker is influencing core technology design before its first commercial deployment (targeted for late 2027), represents a powerful acceleration of the maturation process. The technology is still not commercial, but its path to commercialization is no longer just a technical roadmap. It is now a market-driven race, with the focus shifting to tangible enablers like NRC licensing and the HALEU fuel supply chain, compressing development timelines under the weight of unprecedented market pull.

Table: SWOT Analysis: The High-Stakes Gamble of Switch’s SMR Strategy

2025 Outlook: Key Signals to Watch in Switch’s Nuclear Power Play

The data from 2025 confirms that Switch’s SMR strategy has moved beyond the announcement phase and into the critical, and far more difficult, execution stage. The initial industry excitement is giving way to a sober assessment of the monumental task ahead. For energy executives, investors, and strategists, the coming year will not be about grand pronouncements but about tangible progress against key milestones. The most powerful signal to watch for will be the conversion of portions of the 12 GW non-binding agreement into firm, binding contracts. Such a move would indicate a significant increase in Switch’s confidence in Oklo’s delivery timeline and would likely be tied to positive regulatory or technical progress.

Beyond that, market actors must track three critical indicators. First is Oklo’s progress with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission; any news regarding its licensing application will be a major catalyst or obstacle. Second is the development of the HALEU fuel supply chain, an industry-wide dependency that could bottleneck the entire SMR sector. Finally, look for announcements of specific site selections at Switch’s data center campuses, which will provide the first concrete project timelines. While the concept of nuclear-powered data centers is gaining powerful traction, Switch’s high-stakes venture serves as the ultimate test case. Its success or failure will reverberate across the energy and technology sectors for decades to come, and tracking these specific signals is the only way to anticipate the outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly is Switch’s nuclear power plan?
Switch has a non-binding Master Power Agreement with SMR developer Oklo to potentially secure up to 12 gigawatts (GW) of carbon-free power. The strategic goal is to provide a long-term, reliable, and scalable energy source for its large-scale “AI Factories” through 2044, aiming for grid independence and energy cost stability.

What are the biggest risks to Switch’s SMR strategy?
The primary risks include a high dependency on a single, pre-commercial SMR partner (Oklo); the challenge of Oklo securing the necessary licenses from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC); potential bottlenecks in the nascent supply chain for High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel; and the overall execution risk of deploying a novel technology at an unprecedented scale.

Is the Oklo SMR technology that Switch plans to use already proven and commercial?
No, the technology is still pre-commercial. However, Switch’s massive 12 GW demand signal is accelerating its path to commercialization. In a direct response to the power needs of Switch’s AI workloads, Oklo upgraded its Aurora reactor design from 50 MW to 75 MW in March 2025. The first commercial deployment is targeted for late 2027, but the technology has not yet been built or operated at scale.

The article mentions the agreement is “non-binding.” What does this mean?
A “non-binding” agreement signifies that it is a statement of intent rather than a legally enforceable contract. It reflects the significant underlying uncertainties in the project, such as regulatory approvals and technology readiness. A key milestone to watch for will be the conversion of portions of this agreement into firm, binding contracts, which would signal a major increase in confidence in the project’s viability.

Why is this nuclear project focused specifically on the United States?
The focus is on the U.S. because that is where Switch’s largest data center campuses, the intended customers for this power, are located. Furthermore, the entire project’s success depends on the U.S. domestic ecosystem, including navigating the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for licensing and developing a national supply chain for the HALEU fuel required by Oklo’s reactors.