Thryve.Earth Carbon Capture, 635, 000 Tonne Google & Tencent Deal, 10-Year Offtake Structures, and 2 Major Agreements (2026)

Carbon Removal Bankability, Thryve.Earth Offtakes De-Risk Large Projects

The voluntary carbon market is undergoing a structural shift from speculative spot buys to bankable, long-term offtake agreements, a mechanism critical for financing large-scale, capital-intensive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects. The series of 10-year agreements Thryve.Earth secured in July 2026 for its Indonesian agroforestry project exemplifies this evolution. By providing a guaranteed revenue stream over a decade, these contracts provide the financial certainty required for project developers to secure upfront capital for activities like land restoration and planting, which were previously difficult to finance through the volatile spot market that characterized the VCM before 2025.

Shift from Spot Market to Long-Term Contracts

• Prior to 2025, the VCM was dominated by corporations making annual, spot-market purchases of often low-quality, avoidance-based credits to offset emissions. This model provided insufficient revenue certainty for developers of high-quality removal projects.
• The Thryve.Earth deals, which include commitments for 300, 000 tonnes from Tencent, 260, 000 tonnes from Google, and 75, 000 tonnes from Mc Kinsey & Co., are structured as 10-year forward offtake agreements, establishing a new commercial benchmark for bankability in the nature-based solutions sector.
• This long-term contract structure is the pivotal enabling mechanism, directly addressing the primary bottleneck that previously stalled large-scale projects: the lack of a predictable, long-term buyer to underwrite project risk and unlock traditional project finance.

Diversified Corporate Portfolios

• The agreements reveal an increasingly sophisticated corporate procurement strategy focused on building diversified portfolios of carbon removal solutions. These portfolios blend different methods, geographies, and risk profiles.
• For instance, Google’s purchase of nature-based credits from Thryve.Earth complements its investments in highly durable, technology-based removal through the Frontier fund, which saw a new $915 million commitment in June 2026.
• This portfolio approach allows companies to balance cost, scale, and durability, using lower-cost nature-based removals like agroforestry to achieve volume while supporting higher-cost engineered solutions like Direct Air Capture (DAC) to drive innovation for permanent CDR.

CDR Market Forecast to Surge 440% by 2035
The Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) market is forecast for exponential growth, projected to expand nearly 440% from approximately $0.9 billion in 2025 to $4.9 billion by 2035. This rapid acceleration underscores increasing global demand for scalable climate solutions.

Corporate Offtake Contracts Fuel CDR Market Expansion
Early corporate commitments, such as Google, McKinsey, and Tencent contracting 635,000 tonnes of carbon removal from Thryve.Earth, are critical market accelerators. These high-profile deals validate nascent CDR technologies, de-risk investment, and drive necessary scale to bring down costs.

Carbon Removal Investment Soars 37x in Six Years
Investment in carbon removal technologies surged from $0.1 billion in H1’20 to $3.7 billion by H1″26 YTD, a 37-fold increase. Direct Air Capture (DAC) consistently dominates this growth, making up the largest segment of investment.

(Source: Carbon Dioxide Removal Market Size, Share, Detailed Analysis Report to 2035)

$4.4 M to $15.2 M Deal Value, Thryve.Earth Financial Implications

The total estimated value of the Thryve.Earth offtake agreements, between $4.4 million and $15.2 million, demonstrates that large-scale restoration projects are economically viable when supported by credible, long-term corporate demand. This valuation, based on 2026 market pricing for high-quality nature-based removal credits, provides a tangible financial model for future projects seeking investment, anchoring project valuations in committed revenue rather than speculative market prices.

Valuing the Thryve.Earth Agreements

• The deal’s value is derived from the total contracted volume of 635, 000 tonnes multiplied by the 2026 price range for high-quality, nature-based credits, which sources indicate averaged between $7–$24/t CO₂e.
• This long-term revenue commitment is the most critical element for investors and lenders, transforming the project from a high-risk environmental venture into a bankable asset with a predictable cash flow profile over a 10-year horizon.

Context of Broader CDR Investment

• The price point for these nature-based credits contrasts sharply with technology-based solutions like DAC, which command premium prices from $170 to over $500/t CO₂e, as seen in deals with developers like Climeworks and 1 Point Five.
• While the per-tonne price is lower, the Thryve.Earth deal’s scale and multi-year structure create significant absolute value and demonstrate a market segment that can deliver volume and co-benefits such as biodiversity and community support, which are not present in purely technological removals.

Table: Select Carbon Removal Offtake and Investment Deals (2026)

CDR Market Size to Grow 5x by 2035
The Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) market is forecasted for rapid growth, nearly quintupling from approximately $0.9B in 2025 to $4.9B by 2035. This exponential trajectory indicates increasing demand and investment in carbon removal solutions, driven by corporate net-zero commitments and evolving regulatory frameworks.

Corporate Procurement Driving Early CDR Market Scale
This rapid market expansion is fueled by major corporations like Google and McKinsey making significant future-dated carbon removal purchases, as exemplified by the Thryve.Earth contract mentioned. Such early commitments de-risk supply, signal long-term demand, and accelerate technology scale-up, moving CDR from nascent to critical climate infrastructure.

Global Carbon Removal Market Poised for 17.5% CAGR Growth to $3.85B by 2035
The Global Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) market is projected to expand significantly, from an estimated US$0.78 billion in 2025 to US$3.85 billion by 2035, demonstrating a robust 17.5% CAGR. This rapid growth, observed across actual and forecasted values, underscores increasing corporate investment and demand for carbon removal solutions.

(Source: Carbon Dioxide Removal Market Size, Share, Detailed Analysis Report to 2035)

Thryve.Earth 3 Corporate Pacts, Google, Tencent & Mc Kinsey (2026)

Strategic partnerships, particularly buyer-led coalitions, have become the primary vehicle for aggregating corporate demand and channeling it toward high-integrity carbon removal projects in a structured, efficient manner. The Thryve.Earth agreements were facilitated by two distinct partnership models: a buyer’s coalition for the North American firms and a direct, landmark agreement for the Asian tech giant, showcasing the different pathways to market that are now solidifying.

The Symbiosis Coalition Mechanism

• The combined purchase of 335, 000 tonnes by Google and Mc Kinsey was executed through the Symbiosis Coalition, a buyer-led group focused on scaling nature-based CDR.
• This coalition model allows buyers to pool their demand to support larger projects, share due diligence efforts, and send a stronger, more unified demand signal to the market, which reduces transactional friction for all parties.
• The coalition’s earlier deal in March 2026 with Living Carbon for reforestation credits demonstrates its effectiveness as a repeatable mechanism for procuring high-quality nature-based removals.

Tencent’s Global Portfolio Expansion

• Tencent‘s direct purchase of 300, 000 tonnes is strategically significant as it represents the company’s first carbon removal offtake agreement outside of China.
• This move signals a clear intent to build a global, diversified portfolio of carbon credits and establishes a new precedent for other major Asian corporations to look beyond domestic projects for high-quality CDR.
• The deal’s structure as a 10-year offtake indicates that Tencent is adopting the same best practices for de-risking projects as its Western counterparts, contributing to the standardization of bankable contracts globally.

Table: Breakdown of Thryve.Earth Partnership Agreements (July 2026)

Indonesia vs. U.S., Thryve.Earth Global Project Siting

While the United States has been a center for CDR innovation, particularly for technology-based approaches and venture funding, the Thryve.Earth agreement highlights Southeast Asia’s critical role in scaling large-hectare, nature-based restoration projects. The selection of Indonesia for this 6, 000-hectare project underscores a geographical diversification in the VCM, with corporate buyers now actively sourcing high-volume credits from the Global South.

• The project’s location in Sulawesi, Indonesia, was chosen for its potential to restore large tracts of degraded land, which offers significant carbon sequestration potential alongside biodiversity and community co-benefits. This contrasts with project siting in the U.S., where land use is more constrained and expensive.
• Before 2025, large-scale CDR deals were more commonly associated with North American or European projects. Deals like this one, and Microsoft‘s biochar agreements in India with Equilibrium, signal a decisive shift towards sourcing from developing economies.
• Tencent‘s participation further cements this trend, representing a major Asian buyer procuring removal credits from a Southeast Asian supplier, strengthening regional market linkages outside the traditional North America-Europe axis.

Agroforestry at Scale, Thryve.Earth Project Proves Commercial Viability

The Thryve.Earth deal provides critical validation for agroforestry as a commercially scalable and bankable carbon removal pathway, elevating it from a niche, small-scale practice to a method capable of anchoring multi-hundred-thousand-tonne corporate offtake agreements. This represents a significant step in the maturity of nature-based solutions, proving they can meet the stringent due diligence and verification standards of the world’s largest technology companies.

• The agroforestry method, which integrates trees with crops and/or livestock, sequesters carbon in above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, and soil organic matter, offering a durable and holistic removal pathway.
• Prior to 2025, securing large-scale, long-term financing for agroforestry CDR projects was exceptionally challenging due to perceived risks around measurement, verification, and permanence.
• The 10-year term of the offtake agreements signed by Google, Tencent, and Mc Kinsey signals a high degree of confidence in Thryve.Earth‘s ability to accurately project, monitor, and deliver the contracted carbon removals over the long term.
• This commercial validation is a pivotal milestone, providing a replicable model that demonstrates to investors and other corporations that agroforestry projects can be structured as bankable, high-integrity assets.

Scenario Modelling, 635, 000 Tonne Offtake Signal for CDR Market

The success of the Thryve.Earth financial model is contingent on the replication of its core mechanism: long-term, high-volume offtake agreements. The most critical signal to watch for in the next 12-18 months is the entry of institutional project finance into the sector, using these corporate contracts as collateral. This would mark the transition of nature-based CDR from a niche asset class funded by corporate balance sheets to a mature market integrated with mainstream financial institutions.

• If this happens: More buyer-led groups modeled after the Symbiosis Coalition emerge, potentially focused on specific geographies like Latin America or Africa, or specific removal pathways like biochar or enhanced rock weathering.
• Watch this: Major project finance banks announce they are providing debt financing to a large-scale CDR project, with the loan secured primarily by the revenue from a portfolio of corporate offtake agreements.
• These could be happening: The price gap between high-quality, verified removal credits and low-quality, unverified avoidance credits widens significantly, leading to a market collapse for the latter as corporate buyers complete their “flight to quality.”
• Signal: A major corporation outside the tech sector, such as a financial institution like TD Bank or a consumer goods company, announces a multi-hundred-thousand-tonne, 10-year offtake agreement for nature-based removals, indicating the model’s adoption across industries.

The questions your competitors are already asking

This report covers one angle of how nature-based carbon removal projects are becoming bankable. The questions that matter most depend on your work.

• Other companies buying long term carbon removal
• Nature based vs tech carbon removal price
• Project finance for carbon removal projects
• Large carbon removal projects in developing countries

This report does not answer these. Enki Brief Pro does.

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