Overall Takeaway

Climeworks – From Breakout Growth to Operational Crossroads

Between 2023 and mid‑2025, Climeworks’ trajectory in Direct Air Capture moved from strong policy‑driven momentum and high‑value corporate offtakes toward large‑scale commercialization — but also into sharper operational and financial scrutiny.
In 2023, U.S. DOE hub selection, marquee contracts with JPMorgan and BCG, and global expansion signaled a leadership position, even as long‑term cost projections doubled.
2024 built on this with the launch of the Mammoth plant, Gen 3 technology promises, AAA‑rated validation, and record commercial deals like Morgan Stanley, narrowing the gap between PR and real deployments.
The first half of 2025 opened with diversified partnerships and a Gen 3 breakthrough backed by strong demand from SAP and MOL. Yet, underperformance at Mammoth, significant layoffs, and a spike in negative sentiment exposed critical execution risks.
The result is a market split: robust appetite for high‑quality DAC credits versus rising doubts over scalability, cost‑competitiveness, and operational reliability — leaving Climeworks at a crossroads between sustained leadership and stalled adoption.

Exxon – CCS & DAC Momentum and Market Reality

From 2023 to mid‑2025, Exxon’s low‑carbon strategy evolved from a breakthrough year of landmark CCS agreements and infrastructure acquisitions (notably the $4.9B Denbury deal in 2023) to a volatile and reputation‑sensitive commercialization trajectory. In 2024, momentum was uneven: Q2 brought key CCS partnerships (Pertamina, Technip Energies, Air Liquide), while Q4 saw diversification into lithium offtake and low‑carbon power for AI‑driven data centers. Yet persistent gaps between PR and execution, negative sentiment from shareholder disputes, and reliance on subsidies tempered investor confidence. By 2025, the narrative was dominated by ambitious international MoUs (e.g., $10B Indonesia CCS) and large offtake agreements (Calpine, 2M tons/year CO₂), but also by major setbacks, including a Southeast Asia project cancellation and the loss of a $331M DOE grant after a $3.7B federal funding rollback. The result is a CCS and DAC portfolio with undeniable market pull and global partnerships, but still hampered by subsidy dependence, execution gaps, and policy risk—making sustained, subsidy‑independent adoption a longer‑term challenge rather than an imminent reality.

Noya – Event‑Driven Rise, Strategic Partnerships, and Pre‑Commercial Stall

From 2023 through mid‑2025, Noya’s trajectory has been defined by sharp bursts of progress separated by long development lulls. In 2023, momentum came from two high‑impact moments: an $11M Series A funding round in Q2 and a modular DAC technology update in Q4, both driving exclusively positive sentiment. 2024 was quiet until Q4, when a manufacturing partnership with Johnson Matthey signaled readiness for scale and eliminated the gap between PR and commercial action. By contrast, the first half of 2025 shows no commercial deals or deployments—only grant‑funded R&D milestones, including California Energy Commission support for sorbent and regeneration technology. While sentiment remains positive, it now rests on future potential rather than market execution. The pattern points to a company with strong technology credibility and high‑profile alliances but facing the critical challenge of converting technical progress into sustained, subsidy‑independent commercial traction.

Sirona – From Launch Momentum to Early Market Leadership

Between 2023 and mid‑2025, Sirona evolved from a high‑profile market entrant into one of the most commercially active players in Europe’s DAC landscape. Its late‑2023 launch, led by ex‑Tesla and SpaceX engineers, marked Belgium’s first DAC company and immediately positioned it as a credible technology contender. In 2024, overall PR and commercial activity moderated from the Q4 2023 peak, but positive sentiment surged to record levels, reflecting strong market confidence despite a persistent gap between announcements and deployments. The first half of 2025 brought a decisive shift: February’s launch of Project Jacaranda in Kenya with Cella became the company’s first major pilot deployment, nearly closing the historical PR‑to‑commercial gap and sparking sustained optimism. Q2 saw Sirona secure adoption signals through partnerships with Hexa and Agendi for permanent carbon removals, reinforcing its commercial pathway. While tangible deployments remain concentrated in a single flagship project, Sirona now commands exceptionally positive sentiment, a growing offtake pipeline, and a leadership position in the emerging DAC segment—provided it can maintain execution momentum and scale beyond early showcase projects.

Vernova – From Technology Validation to the PR–Execution Gap

From 2023 to mid‑2025, GE Vernova’s carbon capture and DAC strategy has progressed from early‑stage ecosystem building and grant‑funded studies to independently validated technology, but without consistent commercial follow‑through. In 2023, activity peaked with a $3.3M DOE grant for a DAC hub study—the sole commercial milestone of the year—amid high PR output and strategic MOUs (Svante, Northern Lights). After nine quiet months, 2024 closed strongly with completed FEED studies in Saudi Arabia, positive cost‑reduction results, and renewed optimism from international showcases. The first half of 2025 delivered a major R&D milestone with DARPA‑backed AIR2WATER validation, followed by a surge in DAC marketing. However, commercial events remained at zero in both quarters, widening the ‘say‑do’ gap. Vernova now holds proven technical credibility and a primed market narrative, but the absence of offtake agreements or deployments leaves its mainstream adoption trajectory dependent on converting its technology validation into bankable, large‑scale projects before sentiment risks eroding.

Sustaera – From Partnership Promise to Complete Commercial Stall

From 2023 to mid‑2025, Sustaera’s trajectory shifted from post‑2022 stagnation to a brief spark of promise, and then back into a deeper commercial lull. In 2023, activity collapsed compared to the prior year, with only a single Q2 event and zero positive sentiment, reflecting a market in “wait‑and‑see” mode. 2024 brought a short‑lived upswing as a Q2 Memorandum of Understanding with Canadian developer Deep Sky provided the first tangible adoption signal for Sustaera’s modular DAC technology, driving its highest‑ever positive sentiment ratio despite the absence of binding deals. However, the momentum failed to carry forward: the first half of 2025 has seen no commercial events, just one minor PR mention, and a complete drop in positive sentiment. The pattern now points to a company still reliant on preliminary agreements, with no visible path to deployment. Without a decisive commercial milestone to break this silence, Sustaera risks sliding from early‑stage promise into prolonged irrelevance in the competitive DAC market.

Remora – From PR-Heavy Starts to a Single Breakthrough Moment

Between 2023 and mid‑2025, Remora’s commercialization path shifted from minimal traction to a single, high‑impact leap, but still shows fragility in sustained market adoption. In 2023, activity was almost non‑existent—two minor PR mentions and zero commercial events left sentiment flat at neutral. 2024 brought a sharp but short‑lived Q2 spike when Remora unveiled its semi‑truck carbon capture concept, generating an 0.8 positive sentiment ratio, yet without any pilots or contracts to back the hype. The first half of 2025 began quietly before Q2 delivered a decisive breakthrough: a $60M private funding round and plans to test the technology on freight trains, marking expansion into a vast new transport vertical. This milestone closed the long‑standing PR‑to‑commercial gap and established Remora as the year’s only major activity driver in mobile carbon capture. However, the collapse of the positive sentiment index to zero—despite the funding success—signals a persistent credibility gap and underscores the risk of over‑reliance on a single player to carry the market toward mainstream adoption.

Terrafixing – From Breakthrough Year to PR-Heavy Stall

From 2023 to mid‑2025, Terrafixing’s trajectory moved from obscurity to a breakout commercial moment before stalling in tangible follow‑through. In 2023, activity was minimal—one minor Q2 commercial event and a year‑end PR surge that wasn’t matched by execution, leaving sentiment flat at neutral. 2024 marked a decisive shift: Q2 brought $1.6M in seed funding and a $7.3M offtake agreement with Tugliq Énergie Co., aligning PR and commercial peaks and validating demand for its cold‑climate DAC technology. While Q3 was quiet, Q4’s PR push around pairing DAC with wind power kept sentiment rising, closing the year with a 39% positive sentiment ratio and no negative press. The first half of 2025, however, has seen no new Terrafixing‑specific commercial milestones. Sector‑wide PR was driven by ecosystem partnerships like MaRS’ agreement with a Japanese consortium, but commercial activity remained at zero. Sentiment stayed positive but fell from 2024 highs, reflecting a market waiting for follow‑up deals. Without near‑term execution to match the 2024 breakthrough, Terrafixing risks losing momentum and allowing the PR–execution gap to widen.

Cincy – From Acquisition-Driven Momentum to Research-Stage Publicity

Cincy’s visible DAC trajectory begins in 2024, when Q2’s acquisition of Global Thermostat marked a decisive market consolidation move and set the tone for substance‑driven execution. PR and commercial activity were perfectly aligned—each peak in Q2 and Q4 matched to tangible milestones—resulting in a 0.5 positive sentiment ratio and no negative sentiment. This disciplined approach signaled a credible commercialization pathway under new ownership. By early 2025, however, momentum shifted to an entirely research‑driven story: a University of Cincinnati team announced an energy‑efficient DAC breakthrough in January, triggering record‑high PR activity and 100% positive sentiment, but no commercial deals, pilots, or partnerships. The result is a widening PR‑to‑execution gap that underscores the technology’s pre‑commercial status. Without near‑term movement into pilots or offtakes, the segment risks stalling in the “valley of death” between innovation and bankable deployment, leaving its long‑term adoption potential dependent on securing funding and strategic partners.